TehnoMil

Ucraina a incercat marea cu degentul prin 2008, cand a cerut Statelor Unite o fregata Oliver Hazard Perry.
Interesanta analiza americana de la acea data, publicata prin “bunavointa” Wikileaks:

Reactions of neighboring nations are likely to be mixed. There is an exaggerated belief among many Ukrainian officials that the frigates could provide the Ukrainian Navy with the ability to defend Ukraine’s shores from, among others, Russia. Although these ships could, depending on how they are eventually outfitted, provide the Ukrainian Navy with a real combat capability, this capability would not be something to challenge Russia or Turkey (with the region’s most serious naval presence). At the same time, we assess that it is quite likely that Russia will use the acquisition as an opportunity for an anti-Ukrainian and anti-NATO public information campaign – most particularly directed to media outlets in Crimea, where Russia still hopes to maintain the Black Sea Fleet after the current 2017 expiration of its basing treaty with Ukraine.

10. (C) The negative public relations campaign notwithstanding, our assessment is that an FFG is likely to do little or nothing to change the balance of power in the region. We would not expect either Russia or Turkey to share Ukraine’s assessment of the strategic impact or military importance of a frigate in the region. Likewise, we would expect little militarily substantive reaction from either country in response (e.g., serious objection, diplomatic protests, or changes in posture).

11. (C) We believe other Black Sea littoral states are likely to have a muted response or take a neutral position. While political relations with Romania are currently strained, we would anticipate that, by the time this purchase (if approved) were ready to move forward, relations are likely to have recovered. Georgia, which is allied with Ukraine and which depends on Ukraine for political support in the region, may see a Ukrainian frigate purchase as a positive development.

Sursa: Wikileaks

Saptamana trecuta media ucrainiana a publicat o stire conform careia SUA a fost in sfarsit de acord sa transfere Ucrainei doua fregate OHP ca EDA. Mai bine mai tarziu decat niciodata, ar putea zice ucrainienii.
Vecinii deja viseaza la modernizari de genul facute de Australia sau Turcia insa dupa buget e probabil ca vor primi “pachetul polonez”.

Fregata OHP poloneza Gen. T. Kościuszko – Sursa: Wikipedia.org

In principiu, cele doua nave ar putea fi (re)dotate rapid si ieftin pentru a lansa cel putin rachete Harpoon daca nu si SM-1- fregatele neavand lansatoarele Mk13 care pot fi insa reinstalate – insa costurile unei modernizari mai ample, care sa permita lansarea SM-2 sau ESSM, sint mari si deci putin probabil ca ucrainienii sa incerce macar sa ceara asa ceva. Aprobarea transferului pentru SM-2 sau ESSM ar fi o alta discutie.

Ucraina ar obtine astfel un fel de corveta purtatoare de rachete, cu autonomie mare si capabila sa opereze in conditii meteo proaste. Si cam atat. Eventual o modernizare a suitei ASW ar putea fi o idee buna, avand in vedere situatia din MN dar ucrainienii se vor lovi din nou de problema transferului echipamentelor.

Revenind la reactiile vecinilor, cum ar trebui sa primeasca Romania vestea asta? O fi de bine ca rusii trebuie sa aiba grija a doua nave in plus sau de rau, avand in vedere ca relatiile cu Ucraina sint oarecum imprevizibile?