TehnoMil

By Caudillo:

Dupa anuntul donarii de Patriot catre Ucraina au aparut niste idei sucare, una din ele e ca trebuie sa fim multumiti ca aceasta donatie nu ne costa decat 60 milioane parai, asa ca sunt necesare niste clarificari, respectiv sa stabilim cine ii ajuta e rusi si cine profita de pe urma acestui ajutor, momentan discut despre sustinerea militara a rusilor.

Pentru asta sursele ucrainiene ne sunt de mare ajutor, problema e cunoscuta de ceva timp. Ukrainska Pravda 28 august 2023, despre dronele Lancet :

Ekonomichna Pravda (EP) obtained a report on the Russian production of Lancets from the Ukrainian President’s Office, jointly compiled by Ukrainian special services and research institutes. It also mentions equipment from the Swiss company Essemtec, Japanese company JSW and Chinese company Jiangsu Huawei Machine. Most of the equipment reached Russia after Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

US-made XILINX microprocessors provide image processing, while Nvidia modules ensure target acquisition. The navigation system is based on the Russian GLONASS system, but microchips from the Swiss company U-blox are required to establish communication with satellites.

One of the critical components in producing any UAV is printed circuit boards, requiring such materials as photoresist and fibreglass, as well as related equipment and expendables. Despite the sanctions, Russia keeps getting all these components from various Western and Asian countries.

How do the parts reach Russia?

Civilian goods seem to be a no-brainer, as you simply cannot control them. However, how do dual-use goods and sanctioned components find their way into Russia?

Czech Model Motors notes that its engines are not on the list of dual-use goods. Their exports are not regulated like the circulation of weapons components. The company’s engines have been subject to EU sanctions since December 2022.

Ukrainian special services report that the Russian company Legion Komplekt imported engines for Lancets even after the restrictions were imposed, albeit at a threefold higher price. The supplier was reportedly the German company Hydro-Funk. EP sent an inquiry to this company but received no response.

Ukrainian secret services have painted a typical picture of how chips made by Texas Instruments and Taiwan’s Xilinx get into Russia.

There is a Russian company called VMK. They are the largest supplier of these components to Russia. This company acquires electronics from TIL and ATIL – two intermediary companies from Hong Kong and mainland China.

The first one was set up by VMK’s CEO Dmitriy Rebus independently with its registered address at a shopping centre. The second one purchases products from the Turkish Turkik Union, which bears all the hallmarks of a shell company and is mentioned in Russian opposition media as a Turkish company supplying Rostec, a Russian state-owned defence conglomerate. This is how the components end up in Russia through several links.

Asian and European machine tools also enter Russia through intermediaries to avoid giving rise to accusations that the manufacturer is collaborating with the aggressor state.

Firms from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are actively importing machine tools. These three countries have previously publicly promised to comply with sanctions and not help Russia circumvent them, but in practice, the situation is quite the opposite.

A report by the European Commission’s research centre found that various components for producing printed circuit boards, which the Russians use to make technological weapons, have not yet been subject to export controls: epoxy composites, polyamide adhesives, polymer film, testing equipment, etc.

Sursa: Pravda

Interesanta si cresterea brusca a exporturilor de semiconductori din unele tari catre Rusia, articol  ucrainian din mai 2023 :

Semiconductor exports to Russia from Türkiye, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Serbia have increased tenfold. None of these countries are manufacturers of microchips. They play the role of intermediaries.

Sursa: Pravda

Alta sursa, Radio Europa Libera , despre aviatia rusa mai 2024:

KYIV – Major Japanese, U.S., and Taiwanese companies rank among the Top 5 manufacturers on a list of more than 2,000 electronic components that Ukraine says Russia has used in five types of warplanes it has deployed in its full-scale invasion, Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, has found.

Though the imports did not come directly from these manufacturers, they underline the vulnerabilities of the sanctions Western countries have imposed on Russia – a recurring complaint for Kyiv as, handicapped by a deficit of weapons and ammunition, it watches Russian forces advance, hammering soldiers, civilians, and vital infrastructure.

Ukraine has emphasized that stopping the import of such sanctioned dual-use products is crucial for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. In an April 14 speech, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarked that “it is not opinions that curb the production of missiles and drones for terror.”

Schemes obtained a list of 2,000 electronic components that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia used in five types of Sukhoi warplanes that were involved in attacks on Ukraine between the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and the end of 2023.

Using the list and publicly accessible import data, Schemes tracked two intermediary companies in European Union countries — Cyprus and Hungary – that shipped electronic components to Russian defense contractors involved in the manufacture of the Sukhoi jets that deliver those missiles.

The list, provided by a Ukrainian intelligence source who monitors Russian military contractors’ imports, identifies electronic components used for the “brains” of five Sukhoi jet models that Russia uses regularly in attacks on Ukraine – the Su-27SM3, Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-57.

The parts facilitate the Russian planes’ navigation and guidance systems for these missiles and bombs, as well as their radio-electronic warfare with Ukrainian forces and communications with their control centers.

As an example, Valeriy Romanenko, a senior research associate at Kyiv’s Ukrainian State Aviation Museum, cited radar that can simultaneously track and target dozens of sites more than 300 kilometers away, while monitoring the aircraft’s location relative to enemy planes and anti-aircraft defenses.

These systems, “built mostly with Western-made electronics, allow the Russians to inflict significant losses on us,” Romanenko said.

The Top Five

Schemes reviewed the list along with the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a Kyiv nonprofit that monitors corruption in Ukraine’s national security sphere.

According to Schemes’ calculations, Japan’s Murata, known for its radio and filters technology, manufactured the highest number of components used by Russia in the aircraft – 218 out of the more than 2,000 listed products. Russian customs data analyzed by NAKO indicates that Russian imports of Murata products from third parties increased by 38 percent in 2022, to $8.5 million, and reached $9.6 million in 2023.

U.S.-based Texas Instruments ranked second, with 176 items. RFE/RL reported in June 2023 that Russia regularly imports products from TI and another U.S. Firm, Analog Devices, via Kazakh and Kyrgyz companies.

U.S.-based Analog Devices and its subsidiary Maxim Integrated ranked third and fifth, with 163 and 60 items, respectively. Products from the Taiwanese-owned, U.S.-based company Kemet were the fourth-most-numerous import, at 71, according to Schemes’ analysis of the list.

The list also contains European companies as well as other U.S. and Japanese electronics and semiconductor manufacturers.

The imports were not direct purchases from the manufacturers, but, as data from the online international-trade database Import Genius showed, sales by third parties to Russian buyers.

Schemes contacted Murata, Texas Instruments (TI), Analog Devices (ADI), Kemet, and Maxim Integrated for comment. Kemet and Maxim did not respond.

Analog Devices said that it “has complied fully with export laws.” *

“ADI has robust internal policies, controls, and practices to ensure sales of ADI products comply with export control laws in the U.S. and in other countries in which ADI operates,” a spokesperson said in an e-mail.

Sursa

La 08.07.2024  a fost lovit spitalul de copii Okhmatdyt din Kiev si  s-a constatat  din nou cat de distructive sunt armele rusesti si ce componente electronice occidentale contin , deci aprovizionarea armatei ruse de catre occidentali continua, cu consecinte tragice pentru ucrainieni :

Ucrainienii au detaliat care sunt componentele occidentale din racheta Kh-101 care a lovit spitalul de copii Okhmatdyt :

The Russian Kh-101 cruise missile that struck Kyiv’s children’s hospital, killing several, contained 28 components from 15 Western firms, Six of these companies still operate in Russia

It is beyond doubt that the Russian missile that struck Kyiv’s central children’s hospital Okhmatdyt on 8 July  was a Kh-101 cruise missile, a highly-accurate weapon

The attack on Ukraine’s number one children’s medical institution killed two medics and injured 50 people. A little boy injured in the attack later died from his wounds.

The Kh-101, Russia’s most advanced tactical land attack cruise missile launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, carries 450 kg of explosives and an accuracy of 5-20 meters. Its flight routes are programmed well ahead, meaning that the strike on Okhmatdyt was no accident but a planned Russian war crime.

Inside this deadly projectile are 28 western components produced by 15 companies, six of which are still operating in Russia, it follows from the database of the Kyiv School of Economics and research by Trap Agressor.

It found 39 types of Russian weapons and equipment with foreign processors, modules, and chips by analyzing battlefield evidence in Ukraine. Tanks, airborne combat vehicles, fighter jets, night vision devices, binoculars, and radios are some examples. 69 companies were found to supply components for this equipment to Russia.

Western components in the Russian Kh-101 missile

The Kh-101 missile contains at least 28 foreign components, as per Trap Aggressor Research and the KSE database:

• 18 US components, including:
  • 5 by Texas Instruments (left Russia): Shifting bus switch (CBTD16210, Quad differential line receivers (DS26C32ATM CMOS), Integraited circuits, Memory ram chip, Bidirectional transceiver).
  • 3 by Analog Devices (along with two by Analog Devices (Linear Technology Corporation)); both have suspended operations but have not fully withdrawn from Russia: Multiprotocol transceiver, 12-bit A/D converter manufactured (SN-99 system), Micropower sampling converter).
  • 2 by Integrated Device Technology (no data): 64-bit microprocessor, Schmitt trigger
  • 2 by Intel (left Russia): Processor, Microprocessor
  • 1 by Advanced Micro Devices (Xilinx) (stayed in Russia): Field-programmable gate array
  • 1 by Anderson Electronics (no data): Crystal clock oscillators
  • 1 by Microchip Technology (left Russia): Integraited circuits
  • 1 by Motorola (left Russia): Voltage regulator
  • 1 by Vicor (stayed in Russia): DC-DC converter
  • 1 by Zilog (no data): Communications controller
• 5 German-made by Infineon Technologies (Cypress Semiconductor) (stayed in Russia): Computer hardware, CMOS static RAM, 32-megabit flash memory chip (SN-99 system), Memory-SRAM, and Memory.
• 2 components manufactured in the Netherlands:
  • 1 by NXP Semiconductors (Philips Semiconductor) (stayed in Russia): shifting bus switch
  • 1 by Nexperia (stayed in Russia): bus transceiver
• 2 components made in Switzerland by STMicroelectronics (stayed in Russia): Quad flat package and 44-lead thin quad flat packages
• 1 Taiwan-made by Vbsemi (no data): Mosfet

The number of components may be much higher. Research by the Yermak-Mc Faul group on sanctions says that 53 types of foreign-produced Electronic Control Units are inside the Kh-101 missile. However, the Trap Aggressor database contains these 28.

Production speeds of Russian Kh-101 missiles

The Kh-101 missiles Russia hurls into Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure were produced fairly recently.

In December 2022, the Long War journal estimated that Russia produces one Kh-101 missile every four days. The analysts noted that despite Western export controls significantly limiting Russia’s missile production capabilities, Russia compensated by purcasing microcircuits through third countries.

In January 2024, Russia launched a Kh-101 at Kyiv that was produced in Q4 of 2023, according to analysis of its serial number by Defense Express.

In May 2024, Defense Express reported that Russia used a just-produced Kh-101 in its 8 May missile attack. This Kh-101 missile was modified to carry a greater payload: apart from the standard 450 kg, it had a second section with 350 kg of explosives. This doubling of its explosive power came at the price of a decreased range: not 5500 km, but 2250, which is still enough for pummeling Ukrainian cities.

Despite the limitations from Western bans on technology sales to Russia, the aggressor is making nearly eight times more Kh-101s than before its full-blown invasion of Ukraine in 2022, relying on western components, FT reported. The components were repurposed from civilian use, with Russia buying them on the open market and importing via China, FT wrote after analyzing a Kh-101 Russia launched at Ukraine in January 2024.

Sursa

O analiza video a atacului cu Kh-101:

 Si atunci nu trebuie sa mire pe nimeni furia si strigatele de disperare ale ucrainienilor catre occidentali pentru a opri furnizarea de componente electronice catre rusi, un exemplu fiind  dat de nationalistul  ucrainian Serhii Sternenko :

Si putem aminti si despre exporturile rusesti catre occidentali, la fel de bine documentate de ucrainieni ,mai 2023 :

Si asta e un subiect interesant, care poate fi detaliat. In tabelul de mai sus apar exporturi de Almashchi, astea sunt exporturile de diamante rusesti catre Belgia.

Subiectul e vast, ai ce scrie despre el , mentionez doar cum s-a pus problema cand Canada a vrut sa interzica importurile de titanium rusesc , articol recent, mai 2024:

Emmanuel Macron a intervenit personal pentru a scăpa Airbus de sancțiunile împotriva titaniului rusesc / Sursele diplomatice vorbesc de eforturi disperate în spatele culiselor

Președintele Emmanuel Macron a intervenit personal pentru a-l convinge pe premierul canadian Justin Trudeau să acorde Airbus și altor companii aeronautice derogări de la sancțiunile impuse împotriva importurilor de titan rusesc, au dezvăluit 3 surse familiare cu discuțiile pentru agenția Reuters.

Solicitarea delicată a fost transmisă în timpul unei convorbiri telefonice pe care cei doi lideri au avut-o în luna martie, la câteva săptămâni după ce Canada a decis, spre deosebire de ceilalți parteneri strategici, să impună sancțiuni împotriva importurilor de titan, un metal strategic pentru industria aeronautică.

Măsura a alarmat Airbus și alte companii care încă se bazează pe importurile din Rusia pentru fabricile lor din Canada și alte țări.

O sursă apropiată de președintele francez a declarat pentru Reuters că Macron a făcut un „efort semnificativ” pentru a-l convinge pe Trudeau să acorde derogări companiilor europene.

„Numeroase mesaje au fost transmise la toate nivelurile”, a declarat sursa respectivă, referindu-se la ample presiuni diplomatice și industriale. O sursă canadiană familiară cu discuțiile a declarat că Macron a abordat subiectul într-o conversație pe care a avut-o cu Justin Trudeau pe 29 martie, înainte de o vizită a premierului francez Gabriel Attal la Ottawa.

Attal a ridicat la rândul său această problemă în timpul discuțiilor pe care le-a avut cu oficialii canadieni în timpul vizitei sale.

Franța și Macron au insistat ca Airbus să fie scutită de sancțiunile față de titaniul produs în Rusia

O sursă separată a declarat pentru Reuters că eforturile franceze au fost susținute de cel puțin încă un guvern european. Guvernul canadian și-a menținut inițial poziția, însă câteva zile mai târziu a acordat derogări pentru Airbus și alte companii.

Măsura a fost imediat denunțată de ambasadorul Ucrainei la Ottawa.

„Ridicarea sancțiunilor nu a fost ușor de obținut. Cred că noi ne-am fi menținut ferm pe poziție dacă guvernul francez nu ar fi ridicat continuu [problema] la acel nivel înalt”, a declarat sursa canadiană pentru Reuters.

Sursele au fost citate sub condiția anonimității din cauza naturii delicate a problemei.

Cancelariile celor doi lideri nu au dorit să comenteze informația, în timp ce Airbus a transmis că „respectă toate sancțiunile aplicabile în legătură cu Rusia”.

Sursa: Hotnews.ro

Auzi ce bascalie :

 Airbus a transmis că „respectă toate sancțiunile aplicabile în legătură cu Rusia”.

S-au cum se zice, “ egalitate,dar nu pentru catei “ , adica marele sprijinitor al ucrainienilor, presedintele Macron, s-a milogit de Trudeau pentru titaniul rusesc, in timp ce alti europeni sunt criticati pentru legaturile economice cu Rusia.

Despre cooperarea militara Franta-Rusia exista un articol interesant pe site-ul RFI, 14.03.2022 :

Din 2015 până în 2020, Franța a furnizat „în secret” Rusiei cele mai noi echipamente militare: camere termice pentru tancuri, sisteme de navigație, detectoare cu infraroșu pentru avioane militare. Publicația de investigație franceză Disclos a raportat acest lucru pe 14 martie, invocând documente confidențiale de apărare obținute de jurnalişti, precum și surse deschise. Armata rusă ar putea folosi acum acest echipament în războiul împotriva Ucrainei, indică anchetatorii.

Potrivit documentelor confidențiale de apărare accesate de jurnaliştii Disclose și a informațiilor din surse deschise, Franța a eliberat cel puțin 76 de licențe (permise) de export pentru a furniza echipamente militare Rusiei din 2015. Valoarea totală a acestor contracte este de 152 de milioane de euro, potrivit celui mai recent raport către Parlamentul francez privind exporturile de arme.

Printre echipamentele militare pe care Franța le-a furnizat Rusiei din 2015, Disclose numește camere termice pentru tancuri, sisteme de navigație și detectoare cu infraroșu pentru aeronave militare. Principalii beneficiari ai acestor contracte au fost Thales și Safran, al căror acționar principal este statul francez, notează Disclose.

Potrivit publicației, Thales a furnizat Rusiei 55 de camere termice Catherine XP pentru tancuri de asalt în 2019. Aceste camere pot detecta ținte umane pe timp de noapte și pot localiza vehicule pe o rază de 10 kilometri.

Conform documentelor confidențiale, în 2013, Safran a încheiat un contract de furnizare a camerelor termice Matis STD către Rusia. Aceste camere sunt echipate cu tancuri rusești T-72, T-90 și T-80BVM. Toate cele trei tipuri sunt în prezent implicate în operațiuni militare în Ucraina, potrivit videoclipurilor și fotografiilor care circulă pe rețelele de socializare.

Potrivit Disclos, Thales francez, în baza unui contract din 2014, a echipat 60 de avioane de vânătoare rusești Su-30 cu sistemul său de navigație TACAN, ecrane video SMD55S și cele mai recente afișaje head-up (HUD). Avioanele Su-30, deja folosite pentru a bombarda Siria, bombardează acum Ucraina. Publicația enumeră alte tipuri de echipamente militare pe care grupurile franceze le-au furnizat Rusiei sub embargoul european actual. 

Ca răspuns la o solicitare din partea Disclos, Safran a spus că „se conformează strict cu reglementările franceze și europene” și nu furnizează echipamente și nu oferă asistență tehnică Rusiei, în conformitate cu embargoul european din 2014. Thales și biroul primului ministru francez nu au răspuns la întrebările publicației.

Sursa

Exportul francez de armament catre Rusia a fost posibil afirma RFI pentru ca embargoul impotriva Rusiei s-a aplicat din 1 august 2014, dar nu s-a aplicat retroactiv.

Dar mai multe detalii se gasesc pe articolul Disclose :

En 2007, Thales signe un premier contrat avec la Russie pour la vente de caméras thermiques baptisées « Catherine FC ». Puis un second, en 2012, pour l’exportation de 121 caméras « Catherine XP » – un autre modèle de la gamme – destinées à « l’armée de terre russe », comme l’indique une note de mai 2016 du Secrétariat général de la défense et de la sécurité nationale (SGDSN) que Disclose s’est procurée. Selon nos informations, 55 caméras Catherine XP ont encore été livrées à la Russie en 2019.

Intégrée au système de visée d’un char d’assaut, la caméra Catherine permet de détecter des cibles humaines en pleine nuit ou de repérer un véhicule dans un rayon de dix kilomètres. L’avantage, selon la communication de Thales :« Etre le premier à ouvrir le feu. »

Les bombardiers de Poutine

L’industrie de l’armement française équipe aussi l’armée de l’air russe. Sans qu’à aucun moment le gouvernement français ne se soit inquiété de moderniser la flotte des bombardiers de Poutine.

Selon nos informations, depuis un contrat signé en 2014, avec des livraisons qui se sont étalées jusqu’en 2018, le groupe Thales a doté 60 avions de chasse Soukhoï SU-30 de son système de navigation TACAN, son écran vidéo SMD55S et son viseur dernier cri HUD.

Le géant de l’aéronautique a aussi livré son système de navigation TACAN pour équiper certains avions de chasse Mig-29 – à ce stade, nous n’avons pas été en mesure de documenter l’emploi de Mig-29 en Ukraine, ainsi qu’une vingtaine de casques Topowl, dotés d’écrans infrarouges et de jumelles destinés aux pilotes russes, selon le site russe Topwar.

Les Mig-29 et les SU-30 sont également munis d’un système de navigation livré par Safran à partir de 2014 : le Sigma 95N. Cette technologie permet aux pilotes de l’armée de l’air russe de se localiser sans avoir recours aux satellites américains ou européens.

Sursa

Se poate spune ca francezii au dat numai bunaciuni pentru rusi, o  confirmare vine si de la rusi :

At the ongoing air show in Farnborough on July 11, 2012, MIG Russian Aircraft Corporation and the Thales group entered into a contract for the supply of 24 units of the Thales TopSight helmet-mounted target designation and indication system to complete the MiG-29K and MiG-29KUB naval fighters planned for delivery aviation The Russian Navy.

“This system was chosen for installation on deck fighters MiG-29K / KUB, designed for the Russian Navy, since it was successfully tested on India-supplied aircraft of this type, as well as MiG-29UPG fighters,” said a representative of the Russian delegation.

The contract for the supply of the Russian Navy in the period from 2012 to 2015 20 deck fighters MiG-29K and four MiG-29KUB was signed by the Russian Ministry of Defense with RAC “MIG” in February 2012 of the year.

Sursa

Interesant exportul francez de armament catre Rusia/Putin , e vorba de acelasi Putin care invadase Georgia in 2008, e drept ca atunci era doar prim-ministrul Rusiei , dar e vorba de acelasi Putin care-I spunea lui Sarkozy ca-l va spanzura pe Saakashvili  “by the balls” :

NICOLAS Sarkozy was today reported to have saved the Georgia’s president from being “hanged by the balls” by an angry Vladimir Putin.

According to accounts from the Elysée Palace in Paris, the Russian prime minister revealed his plans for getting rid of Mikheil Saakashvili when the French president was in Moscow in August to broker a ceasefire in Georgia.

“I am going to hang Saakashvili by the balls,” Mr Putin apparently said. Mr Sarkozy thought he had misheard, and said: “Hang him?” Mr Putin clarified his point by adding: “Why not? The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein.”

Mr Sarkozy replied: “Yes, but do you want to end up like president Bush?” Mr Putin: “Ah, you have scored a point there.”

Mr Saakashvili laughed nervously when a French radio station read out the exchange to him yesterday, saying: “I knew about this scene, but not all the details. It’s funny all the same.”

Sursa

Nu stiu ce a gasit funny  Saakashvili in povestea asta, la fel nu stiu de ce a existat acest export francez de armament catre Putin, ca stiau francezii cui il vand.

O alta idee sucara a aparut dupa atacul rus de la Poltava, ca daca am fi dat Patriotul  mai devreme ucrainienilor poate ca ucrainienii morti la Poltava ar fi fost vii acum.

In primul rand, au aparut dupa atac niste acuze de incompetenta la adresa militarilor ucrainieni, ca n-ar fi prima oara cand gresesc si se aduna prea multi intr-un loc vulnerabil.

Președintele Volodimir Zellenski a ordonat o anchetă privind circumstanțele atacului devastator de la Poltava al Rusiei asupra Institutului militar de Comunicații și asupra unei unități medicale din apropiere, în care au fost uciși cel puțin 51 de oameni și alți 200 au fost răniți. Liderul de la Kiev a spus că Rusia „va fi cu siguranță trasă la răspundere pentru acest atac”.

Critici pentru neglijență

Deputata ucraineană Mariana Bezuhla a sugerat, de asemenea, că a fost atacată o instituție militară și a acuzat șefii apărării că nu au reușit să prevină atacul.

Deputata Mariana Bezuhla compară ceea ce s-a întâmplat cu un alt atac cu rachete al rușilor în timpul unor antrenamente ale soldaților Brigăzii a 128-a geniu și asalt în regiunea Zaporojie, pe 4 noiembrie 2023.

„Poltava. Nenorocirea ce a lovit Brigada 128 nu i-a învățat nimic, nimeni nu a fost pedepsit. Zalujnîi, Sîrski, Pavliuk au „rezolvat” totul atunci. Avem o repetare a tragediei. Unde este limita?”, întreabă deputata.

Într-un comentariu pentru Focus.ua, deputata a adăugat că nu a fost deschisă nicio procedură penală în cazul Brigăzii 128. În continuare, trupele sunt aliniate și adunate pe terenurile de antrenament. Rușii lansează drone și urmăresc tot ce se întâmplă, a spus ea.Corespondentul militar Iuri Butusov scrie, de asemenea, că niciun ofițer superior nu a fost pedepsit pentru atacurile asupra cazărmilor Forțelor Armate Ucrainene din Iavoriv, Mikolaiv și centrul de instruire Desna. Toate cele trei cazuri au dus la pierderi masive pentru forțele armate.

Sursa: Adevarul.ro

In al doilea rind, rusii au folosit in atacul din 3 septembrie 2024 de la Poltava doua Iskander-M

As a reminder, on 3 September, Russians attacked Poltava with two “Iskander-M” ballistic missiles. The enemy hit an educational institution and a hospital. One of the buildings of the Institute of Communications, the hospital and nearby houses were partially destroyed. 

Sursa

Despre Iskander-K a scris institutul RUSI intr-un raport in 2022 :

RUSI-Silicon-Lifeline-final-updated-web_1

Despre Iskander-M gasim detalii intr-o sursa ucrainiana din 31.12.2022

9M727 Iskander cruise missile

While the Iskander 9K720 system is most known for launching ballistic missiles, it can also fire the 9M727 and 9M728 cruise missiles.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, Russia fired more Iskander cruise missiles over nine months of its invasion than of any other variety, overwhelmingly targeting civilian infrastructure – 829. At the same time, Russia has managed to produce 48 of them since 24 February.

One of Russia’s most advanced weapons, the 9M727, has a range of 400 km and an accuracy of 5-7 meters.

According to Trap Aggressor analysis, a Russian 9M727 Iskander cruise missile contains 20 foreign components.

15 out of these components are US-made.

Out of these 15 components, Texas Instruments used to supply the most (eight) components for Iskanders:

• two digital signal processors (TMS320 C25GBA and TMS320 C30GEL)
• two microchips (TMS 320C30GEL JG-22S2LGB and DSP TMS320C25GBA)
• one processor (Zarya computer)
• one microcircuit logic and voltage translation (Baget-62-04 computer)
• one signal processor (Baget-62-04 computer)
• transceivers (Baget-62-04 computer).

The remaining seven US-made components are:

• field-programmable gate array (Baget-62-04 computer) by Advanced Micro Devices (Xilinx)
• dual-port static RAM (Zarya computer) by Advanced Micro Devices
• 12-bit A/D converter manufactured (SN-99 system) by Analog Devices (Linear Technology Corporation)
• microchip Altera cyclone (Baget-62-04 computer) by Intel (Altera).

And the last three US-made components are by companies that are absent from the Russian market, namely:

• microchip core & wire transformer (Baget-62-04 computer) by Mini-Circuits
• the voltage regulator (Baget-62-04 computer) by Microchip Technology
• boot sector flash memory (Zarya computer) by Integrated Device Technology.

The remaining five EU-made components are:

• one microchip DC/DC converter (Baget-62-04 computer) from Switzerland
• four German-made components:
  – CMOS static RAM (Zarya computer) by Infineon Technologies (Spansion Ink)
  – static random-access memory (Baget-62-04 computer) by Infineon Technologies(SpansionInk)
  – one CMOS static RAM (Zarya computer) by Infineon Technologies (Cypress Semiconductor)
  – ethernet cabling (Zarya computer) by Harting. This company remains operational on the Russian market with an office in St.-Petersburg.

Russian radios, missiles, and surveillance devices use Advanced Micro Devices’ microchips. They have not announced their intention to withdraw from Russia. However, in March, the company announced the suspension of its sales.

Interestingly, the Russians themselves explained how the US components reached Russia after 24 February. Speaking to the Russian newspaper Vedomosti, Dmitry Kurashev, CEO of Russian information security company Usergate, explained that foreign components, including those by Texas Instruments, are now supplied to Russia via “alternative channels.”

Sursa

Despre Iskander-M  se gasesc detalii si pe un site specializat GUR.

Nu stiu cat va ramane functional acest site, am descoperit ca a fost redeschis recent.

The platform” War & Sanctions”, created by the team of the National Agency for the Prevention of corruption (NAPC) at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, officially resumed its work under the auspices of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of defense of Ukraine (Gur), reports UNN.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian and International media reported on the possible closure of the platform. The main reason for this decision was considered to be the dissatisfaction of Western partners with the list of so-called international sponsors of the war, which was a key element of the portal “War & Sanctions”.

In March 2024, public access to the online platform of the NACP was still closed, and the authority itself issued a statement about the transfer of all data to the interdepartmental working group on the implementation of the state sanctions policy of Ukraine. The statement also said that all sanctions registers maintained by the NACP require “normalization and determination of state bodies responsible for their functioning.

In the same March, the Ukrainian media published Newsthat the portal “War & Sanctions” can transfer Gur. This was then stated by anonymous sources from the Department itself, as well as the former head of the NACP Alexander Novikov.

Now the updated portal, which now shows the Gur logo, provides detailed information about persons involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children, as well as about foreign components found in Russian weapons. In the near future, the platform should be supplemented with lists of individuals who already have or should be subject to sanctions, a register of works of art belonging to sanctioned persons, a list of ports and airports that contribute to Russian aggression, as well as a database of foreign industrial equipment used by manufacturers of Russian weapons.

Sursa

Si vai, ce surpriza , s-au suparat partenerii occidentali ai Ucrainei din cauza site-ului !

Dar pentru care vor sa vada care sunt furnizorii occidental pentru armata rusa , gasesc pe site-ul amintit tot ce vor si ce nu vor, la Iskander–M  componentele occidentale sunt pe  3 pagini , afisez partial doar prima pagina :

Dar repet, pentru curiosi, doar pe prima pagina la Iskander-M sunt prezentate 12 componente occidentale ale rachetei Iskander-M.

Asa ca pana sa ne invinovatim noi ca n-am dat Patriotul mai repede AFU, io zic ca vinovatii principali sunt partenerii occidentali ai Ucrainei care au vandut componente esentiale pentru construirea rachetelor Iskander-M care au lovit la Poltava.

O alta idee sucara aparuta pe net ar fi donarea de MiG 21 Lancer catre Ucraina, pentru ca are o avionica buna.

Acu’ exista o problema : avionica Lancerului e israeliana si Netanyahu are o “jena” in a ajuta militar Ucraina :

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel fears providing weapons to Ukraine because they could fall into the hands of the Russians and then Iran.

Source: Netanyahu in an interview with The Jerusalem Post

Quote: “I think Israel is in a peculiar situation, different from say, Poland or Germany or France or any of the Western countries that are assisting Ukraine. 

First of all, we have a close military border with Russia. Our pilots are flying right next to Russian pilots over the skies of Syria. And I think it’s important that we maintain our freedom of action against Iran’s attempts to place itself militarily on our northern border.

Second, we also have concerns that any systems that we give to Ukraine would be used against us because they could fall into Iranian hands and be used against us. And by the way, that’s not a theoretical possibility. It actually happened with the Western anti-tank weapons that we now find at our borders. So we have to be very careful here.”

Details: Netanyahu called Israel’s approach to helping Ukraine “balanced” and believes it is correct. According to him, Western heads of state “understand that Israel is in a different situation from any of them”.

Sursa: Pravda

E adevarat ca interviul e mai vechi si intre timp a aparut atacul din Gaza, dar la fel de adevarat e ca interesul Israelului in a nu supara Rusia e si mai vechi  06/07/2013 :

President Saakashvili said on July 5 that surveillance drones, which his government bought from Israel before the war with Russia, were compromised as sensitive data became available to “adversary”

Georgia made drone acquisitions from Israeli defense electronics company Elbit Systems under the contract signed in 2007. President Saakashvili said in April, 2008 that Georgia had about 40 drones, among them medium size Hermes 450. Georgia lost at least three drones while they were performing reconnaissance over breakaway Abkhazia in spring 2008; but the Abkhaz authorities claimed at the time that seven Georgian drones were downed in March-May, 2008. 

After WikiLeaks started releasing emails snatched by hackers from a U.S.-based global security analysis company Stratfor in early 2012, an allegation emerged that surveillance drones, which Georgia bought from Israel were compromised after Israel and Russia made a swap – Israel gave Russia the ’data link’ code for those specific unmanned aerial vehicle; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for Iran’s Tor-M1 missile systems.

Speaking at a meeting with a group of professors from the Georgian Technical University on July 5, Saakashvili said: “When we were facing great difficulties [in terms of procuring weapons after the August, 2008 war] and when we had to produce our own military hardware, we manufactured not only armored vehicle Didgori and light infantry vehicle Lazika, we have also produced unmanned aerial vehicle after the codes of those drones, which we bought from Israel, became available to our adversary in a very suspicious circumstances and they [drones] were downed. After that we realized that we should not depend on anyone and created our drone with our own software, tested it and many of its specifications were better than those of the Israeli [UAVs].”

Sursa

Si in cazul Pegasus  Israelul s-a ferit sa supere Rusia :

Israel rejected requests from Ukraine and Estonia to purchase NSO’s Pegasus spyware out of concern for Israeli-Russian relations, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.

The NSO Group has been at the heart of a global hacking scandal, as researchers say its Pegasus software has been used by a number of governments around the world to target political dissidents, journalists and activists.

According to the Times, Ukraine attempted to purchase Pegasus after Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, but Israel refused to grant licences to the NSO Group if the goal was to use the software against Russia. 

In the case of Estonia, negotiations to purchase Pegasus began in 2018, and Israel at first authorised Estonia to have the system, apparently unaware that the country planned to use the technology to attack Russian phones.

But a year later, Israel’s defence ministry blocked Estonia from using the spyware on any Russian mobile number worldwide, after a senior Russian defence official contacted Israel security agencies, the Times reported.

Sursa

Asa ca e foarte greu sa aprobe Netanyahu un transfer de Lancere catre Ucraina.

In concluzie, principalii vinovati pentru avansul armatei ruse in Ucraina sunt occidentalii care furnizeaza echipamente electronice armatei ruse. Rusia e limitata tehnologic pe acest segment, au incercat sa produca microcipuri cu tehnologie chineza si au avut 50%  rebuturi :

După sancțiunile internaționale impuse Rusiei, principalul producător rus de cipuri, Baikal Electronics nu a mai avut de unde să importe cipuri și a trecut la producerea internă a acestora. Conform publicației ruse Vedomosti, Baikal se confruntă acum cu o rată foarte mare de defecte în încercarea de a-și dezvolta propriile cipuri, aproximativ jumătate dintre acestea ieșind defecte de pe banda de producție.

Două ar fi cauzele principale pentru această rată foarte mare a defectelor – echipamentele care nu sunt configurate corect și numărul mic de  tehnicieni instruiți corespunzător. Baikal ar folosi o turnătorie chineză pentru dezvoltarea cipurilor. Asta pentru că niciun partener intern nu poate lucra cu tehnologii de fabricație a cipurilor de28nm.

Sursa: Profit.ro

Raul pentru ucrainieni a fost facut si nu cred ca se mai poate face ceva pentru ei, rusii au probabil stocuri suficiente de microchipuri, sanctiunile probabil doar ca au marit preturile de achizitie ale rusilor, dar isi permit sa plateasca si de 3 ori mai mult preturile dinainte de 2022.

Pe langa asta chinezii investesc masiv in productia de cipuri :

Datele publicate recent de Administraţia vamală chineză arată că, în primele şapte luni ale anului 2024, firmele chineze au importat echipamente utilizate pentru producţia de semiconductori cu o valoare de aproape 26 de miliarde de dolari. Este vorba de o cifră mai mare decât precedentul record atins în anul 2021, şi vine într-un context în care oficiali din SUA, Japonia şi Ţările de Jos fac eforturi pentru a extinde restricţiile impuse companiilor chineze.

Achiziţiile firmelor chineze de echipamente produse de companii precum Tokyo Electron Ltd., ASML Holding NV şi Applied Materials Inc. au explodat în ultimul an. În această perioadă, companiile chineze au cumpărat mai multe echipamente pentru producţia de cipuri de tip low-end, după ce SUA şi aliaţii lor au înăsprit controalele asupra accesului firmelor chineze la cele mai moderne tehnologii. Acest val de cheltuieli a dus exporturile olandeze în China la un nou maxim istoric, depăşind pragul de două miliarde de dolari numai în luna iulie, fiind a doua oară în istorie când acest lucru s-a întâmplat.

Sursa

Si asta se vede si in calitatea cipurilor chinezesti:

China este capabilă să dezvolte cipuri avansate şi nu este mult în urma liderilor acestei industrii, în ciuda interdicţiilor impuse de Statele Unite, transmite News.ro.   TechanaLye, o companie de cercetare a semiconductorilor din Tokyo, care dezasamblează 100 de dispozitive electronice pe an, a analizat cipurile produse de companiile chineze, printre care cele folosite de Huawei.

Kirin 9010 şi Kirin 9010, chipset-urile de pe smartphone-urile Huawei, au fost create de subsidiara HiSilicon şi produse în masă de Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.

SMIC are capacitatea de a produce cipuri pe 7 nanometri care măsoară 118,4 milimetri pătraţi, având performanţe similare cu cipurile de 5 nanometri produse de taiwanezii de la TSMC.

Analiza a arătat că, în fapt, nivelul de performanţă de care China este capabilă în ceea ce priveşte producţia de cipuri nu este decât cu trei ani în urma a ceea ce poate dezvolta TSMC, care este unul dintre liderii acestei pieţe.

Sursa

Deci pentru ucrainieni nu  stiu daca ar fi de mare ajutor acum nici macar stoparea completa a exporturilor de microcipuri occidentale catre Rusia, probabil ca ar fi inlocuite de cele chinezesti.

Momentan chipurile occidentale sunt esentiale pentru armamentul rusesc, se observa pe site-ul GUR microchipul american gasit in Iskander-M

Cei care doresc sa-i ajute pe ucrainieni au posibilitatea sa completeze pe site-ul GUR informatiile despre  microchipul amintit.

Rusii sunt de ceva timp deficitari pe partea electronica, dovada imaginile cu avioanele rusesti care folosesc gps-uri Garmin.

Aici in 2009 :

In 2021 in Siria :

Nationalist politician and Soviet Air Force veteran Viktor Alksnis drew attention to recent images of Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber aircraft in Syria, writing on Facebook that military pilots use commercial GPS receivers during their combat operations.

Recent images show the cockpit of the Russian Su-34 Fullback strike jet during combat missions in support of the Syrian Armed Forces in the north of the country. In the image, Viktor Alksnis has spotted a commercial GPS receiver that was secured with a simple clamp in the cockpit of the Su-34.

Experts later determined that the photo shows a U.S.-manufactured GPS receiver developed by the Garmin company. Russian military pilots used the GPS receiver of Garmin’s popular entry-level eTrex Legend family.

Apparently, the Russian military used an American GPS receiver to duplicate their onboard navigation systems, which reportedly often malfunctioned in real combat conditions.

Garmin says that with its high-sensitivity, WAAS-enabled GPS receiver, eTrex Legend locates position quickly and precisely and maintains its GPS location even in heavy cover and deep canyons.

Sursa

In 2022  avioanele rusesti inca foloseau gps-uri civile :

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace has claimed that Russian fighter pilots flying SU-34 fighters in Ukraine are using basic GPS receiver devices taped to the dashboards because of the poor quality of their inbuilt navigation systems.

However, pilots of the Generation 4+ strike fighter need to have a civilian GPS portable terminal installed on their planes, which indicates that the inbuilt navigation system doesn’t meet the requirements of the Russian military, probably due to problems with the hardware or the imperfections in the data information of the electronic map.

Inaccuracy Of Russian GLONAAS

There have been documented concerns about the Russian GLONASS system’s accuracy compared to the US’s GPS navigation system.

Reports suggest that the GLONASS satellite constellation has been underfunded for years and could not ensure sufficient accuracy, because of which, during its operations in Syria, Russia had to build differential correction stations across Syria to enhance GLONASS’s accuracy by 30 to 40%

Sursa

Doar ca in mod surprinzator, dupa doi ani de sanctiuni, Rusia produce avioane atat pentru armata proprie cat si pentru export in Iran , desi la Iran sunt niste neclaritati , dealul a fost anuntat in  noiembrie 2023, dar in 2024 Iranul a negat ca a primit avioanele rusesti :

Iranian officials have denied media reports about the imminent delivery of new Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to Iran. Reports in the Iranian media that the country is to receive the latest generation of aircraft in the next few days are incorrect, according to the Fararu news website. The media had referred to a report by the SNN news agency, which is close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The agency itself denied the report on its Telegram page after consulting with the Defense Ministry, which last year announced that Iran had acquired Mi-28H combat helicopters and Yak-130s from Russia in addition to the SU-35 fighter jets.

Sursa

5 apr. 2024

Trupele ruse au primit bombardiere de primă linie Su-34 și vehicule de luptă de infanterie BMP-3 produse în 2024. BMP-3 au fost transferate la Kurganmashzavod, care a crescut volumele de producție de echipamente militare de doi ani. BMP-3 are un sistem de arme puternic și este echipat cu un sistem automat de control al focului. Transportorul blindat de personal este echipat cu un tun 2A70 de 100 mm și un tun 2A72 de 30 mm, informații tehnice sunt disponibile pe canal. Avioanele Su-34 au fost produse de uzina de aviație din Novosibirsk, numită după V.P. Chkalova.

Sursa :

Surprinzatoare productia de avioane rusesti, pentru ca in 2022 Rusia a pierdut niste comenzi de avioane pe motiv de embargou occidental :

Governments of Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia rejected the potential acquisition of Russian modern Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets amid economic sanctions against Russia, targeting its oil industry, defense, dual-use goods and sensitive technologies, according to people familiar with the matter.

The sources said that Russia asked for its potential partners for another extension to solve the technical and political issues that have arisen as a result of sanctions and being locked up on the import of modern components from the USA, Europe and Israel to produce Su-35 fighters in export configuration.

“The Russian defense industry lost three large orders for its Su-35 fighters at once due to the failure to replace scanned array radar and avionics, which were previously imported from a number of European countries and Israel,” sources told Defence Blog.

On top of that, Egypt stopped the deal for the supply of 30 Su-35 fighters, until the Russian side can solve the problem with imported components, despite the fact that about a dozen aircraft have already been produced.

Sursa

Problema e ca era imposibil pentru o tara ca Rusia ,cu limitari tehnologice evidente, care punea gps-uri civile pe avioanele sale de lupta, care aratau precum autoturismele  sh din targurile de profil romanesti, sa poata produce avioane de lupta sub embargo occidental.

Daramite sa mareasca productia de rachete Kh-101 de 8 ori, din 2022 pana acum !

Asta inseamna ca s-a facut un blat , cineva i-a tradat pe ucrainieni, sau cum spunea presedintele Roosvelt in ianuarie 1944

“ business as usual, politics as usual, luxury as usual “

Ca tot am amintit de diamantele rusesti exportate in Belgia dupa inceperea razboiului din Ucraina !

Inseamna ca Rusia a reusit sa-si procure echipamentele occidentale de care avea nevoie pentru fabricarea de armament,  chiar daca oficial era sub embargo, ca alta explicatie nu exista, Rusia nu e capabila sa-si produca microchipurile de care are nevoie .

Deci sanctiunile impotriva Rusiei sunt doar de PR sau pentru aburirea celor care cred ca e bine ca ne costa doar 60 milioane de parai donatia de Patriot catre Ucraina.

Situatia Rusiei e foarte bine detaliata de generalul Cavoli, UNITED STATES EUROPEAN COMMAND, 11 April 2024, US Senate :

Russia continues to display a resilient economy and an ability to withstand sanctions  and export controls.

Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted a 2.1 percent  drop in Russia’s 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, by the end of the year, the  IMF revised its estimate that Russia’s GDP increased by 3%, primarily due to heavy  investments in defense. Currently, the IMF outlook predicts Russia’s GDP will increase by 2.6%  in 2024.

Russia is on track to spend 6 percent of its GDP on the military, with defense spending  exceeding social spending for the first time since the end of the Soviet Union. This defense  spending includes new manufacturing plants and factories for weapons production.

Russia is  on track to produce or refurbish over 1,200 new main battle tanks a year, and to manufacture at least 3 million artillery shells or rockets per year – over triple the amount the US estimated at the  beginning of the war – and more ammunition than all 32 NATO Allied combined.

Moreover,  Russia has responded to international sanctions by adopting evasion and import substitution  strategies that have allowed it to overcome challenges in acquiring key components, including  microelectronics and machine tools. This has allowed Russia to continue to invest in high-end, exquisite weapon systems to offset U.S. strategic advantages, several of which were  successfully tested this year.

In sum, Russia is on track to command the largest military on the continent and a  defense industrial complex capable of generating substantial amounts of ammunition and  materiel in support of large scale combat operations.

Regardless of the outcome of the war in  Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded.

Sursa

Deci Rusia a avut o crestere economica de 3% in 2023, desi FMI prognozase o scadere cu 2,1 % iar in 2024 FMI prognozeaza o crestere economica de 2,6 % .

Incredibil, asta la o tara sub sanctiuni occidentale de doi ani !

Mai afirma generalul Cavoli ca indiferent de rezultatul razboiului din Ucraina ,Rusia va deveni mai puternica si mai letala fata de situatia din 2022 , oricum ucrainienii simt asta pe pielea lor !

Dupa doi de razboi si sanctiuni occidentale Rusia ar fi trebuit sa intre in colaps, iar Putin trebuia sa cerseasca pacea in 2024, doar ca in 2024 se intampla invers, Rusia e tot mai puternica si Zelensky e cel care vorbeste de conferinta de pace din noiembrie !

O explicatie a situatiei ar putea fi neputinta USA de a impune respectarea sanctiunilor impotriva Rusiei, dar mi-e greu sa cred ca institutii redutabile , cu miliarde de dolari buget precum CIA, NSA, FBI nu au fost capabile sa dibuiasca lantul de aprovizionare al rusilor cu microelectronice si alte materiale strategice,  ar insemna ca sunt o adunatura de imbecili.

Si chiar daca nu reuseau sa identifice acest lant de aprovizionare rusesc , puteau apela la ucrainieni si rezolvau problema.

Ramane doar varianta ca USA si aliatii sai au sprijinit intentionat Rusia, atat prin furnizarea de microelectronice cat si prin importurile de produse  si materiale rusesti precum uraniul , platina,aluminiu,otel, titanium , etc .

Un alt exemplu de sprijinire a masinii de razboi rusesti este exportul de mangan din tarile baltice catre Rusia, stire din 2024 :

Manganul este folosit la fabricarea tancurilor și a altor vehicule blindate.”În general, Letonia și Estonia, care au devenit cei mai mari exportatori de minereu de mangan din UE către Rusia de la începutul războiului din Ucraina, au livrat Rusiei anul trecut 1,9 milioane de tone”, spun surse din industrie, potrivit investigației jurnaliștilor lituanieni. Un procent de 78% a fost transportat prin Letonia, 22% prin Estonia, unde o companie având legături cu fostul premier Tiit Vahi manipulează această marfă în portul Sillame, a scris Re:Baltica

Chiar dacă cifrele arată că Letonia joacă un rol-cheie în furnizarea de minereu de mangan industriei militare ruse, premierul leton Evika Silina a refuzat să ordone companiilor de stat să oprească imediat transportul și manipularea manganului, declarând că interdicția ar trebui impusă de către UE în ansamblul său. Șefa guvernului leton a menționat totodată impactul economic asupra veniturilor și asupra ocupării forței de muncă la căile ferate de stat din Letonia, ale căror filiale transportau minereu.

Sursa: Profit.ro

Cat de idioti pot fi balticii,  Comisia Europeana, USA ca sa nu stie ca manganul exportat la rusi se va duce in blindajul tancurilor si BMP-urilor noi rusesti din Ucraina !

Mi-e greu sa cred ca in acest caz ca exportul a fost permis din greseala timp de doi ani, nu cred ca exista atata incompetenta la Comisia Europeana si in Administratia USA !

Pentru ucrainieni situatia e tragica, din pacate situatia era previzibila, dovada sugestia generalului  Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,noiembrie 2022, adresata ucrainienilor de a negocia pacea cu rusii

Gen. Mark Milley said that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia.

The scramble follows comments last week by Gen. Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily, and that winter may provide an opportunity to begin negotiations with Russia.

The debate within the administration took off last week after Milley, who also strayed from White House talking points in the previous administration, shared his assessment that neither Ukraine nor Russia can win militarily.

Both sides need to reach a “mutual recognition” that a military victory “is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means,” Milley said, adding that the potential stalemate provides “an opportunity here, a window of opportunity for negotiation.”

“Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?” the second U.S. official said.

Sursa

One week after saying there may be a window for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, the top US general laid out a comprehensive list of Russia’s failures and suggested negotiations – if they were to occur – would be done from a position of strength for Kyiv.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said the Russian military was “really hurting bad” after nearly nine months of war in which the Kremlin has failed to achieve any of its goals. The Ukrainians have racked up “success after success after success,” Milley quipped, while the Russians “have failed every single time.”

Those failures, Milley suggested, which come on top of Ukraine’s recent liberation of Kherson, may even allow Ukraine to push for what it is unlikely to achieve militarily: a withdrawal of Russian forces.

“There may be a political solution where politically the Russians withdraw,” Milley said at a press conference Wednesday. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness. And it’s possible, maybe, that there’ll be a political solution. All I’m saying is there’s a possibility for it.”

Speaking in New York last Wednesday, Milley said both Russia and Ukraine will have to realize that military victory is impossible to achieve and that a negotiated end to the conflict would end the suffering of war.

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley said at the time.

Sursa

Suntem in 2024 si situatia militara e asa cum a prezis-o generalul Milley, nici una din parti nu a obtinut victoria militara,  rusii sunt la Pokrovsk, ucrainienii in Kursk Oblast, dar pentru ucrainieni e tot mai greu, au avut zeci de morti la Poltava, sistemul energetic ucrainian e greu lovit de rachetele si dronele rusesti pline de electronica occidentala si Zelensky invita Rusia la conferinta de pace din noiembrie 2024.

Plus pierderile umane si materiale imense suferite de Ucraina in doi ani de razboi.

Cine e vinovat pentru aceasta situatie ?

O parte de vina o are Zelensky care nu a ascultat de sfatul lui Milley de a incerca sa negoicieze cu rusii in iarna lui 2022, cand AFU era intr-o situatia avantajoasa, poate obtinea o intelegere convenabila.

O alta parte importanta de vina o au oficialitatile americane si europene care au sprijinit intentionat atat armata rusa, cat si economia rusa. Spun intentionat pentru ca nu cred ca americanii nu erau capabili ca timp de doi ani sa opreasca aprovizionarea armatei ruse cu microelectronice.

Daca sanctiunile impotriva Rusiei ar fi fost aplicate, acum Rusia ar fi fost in colaps , nu ar fi avut crestere economica, iar armata rusa nu ar fi avut sute de rachete si drone cu care sa atace Ucraina.

Nu ar fi fost posibil sa cheltuiasca Putin 1,5 miliarde dolari in 5 zile pe atacuri impotriva Ucrainei

În ultima săptămână, pentru valul intens de atacuri asupra Ucrainei, președintele rus Vladimir Putin, a cheltuit 1,5 miliarde de dolari. Rusia a trimis drone și rachete în mai mult de jumătate din regiunile ucrainene, omorând cel puțin șapte persoane și distrugând mai multe instalații electrice civile. Reprezentantul Regatului Unit la ONU, James Kariuki, a explicat că atacurile aeriene „lașe” ale Rusiei au costat Kremlinul aproape 1,14 miliarde de lire sterline, cifră calculată de Forbes Ukraine și Ekonmichna Pravda. Presa internțională scrie că loviturile Rusiei sunt cele mai mari de până acum. Acestea par să fie o ripostă la incursiunea Ucrainei în regiunea Kursk, care durează de trei săptămâni.

Sursa

Sunt mai multe motive pentru care americanii i-au sprijinit pe rusi, e mult de discutat pe aceasta tem, nu le enumar pe toate.

Un motiv e evident, razboiul prelungit din Ucraina a adus profituri uriase firmelor americane de armament si nu ma refer doar la banii cheltuiti pentru Ucraina, un exemplu este achizitia romaneasca de 6,5 miliarde de dolari pentru F35, vanzare la care nici nu visa Lockheed-Martin daca nu era razboiul din Ucraina.

Un alt motiv si ma  opresc aici cu enumerarea ,este declarat chiar de Zelensky  in 16 mai 2024:

President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine’s partners “are afraid of Russia losing the war” and would like Kyiv “to win in such a way that Russia does not lose,” Zelensky said in a meeting with journalists attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv’s allies “fear” Russia’s loss in the war against Ukraine because it would involve “unpredictable geopolitics,” according to Zelensky. “I don’t think it works that way. For Ukraine to win, we need to be given everything with which one can win,” he said.

Sursa

Si revenind la donatia noastra de Patriot,  eficienta Patriot e  oricum redusa daca nu se inlatura cauza acestor atacuri cu rachete rusesti, respectiv componentele electronice occidentale fara de care nu ar fi posibila fabricarea acestor rachete, drone ,avioane ,etc.

Ar urma o spirala a inarmarii , Rusia va construi si mai multe rachete cu care sa atace Ucraina, deci si mai multe importuri occidentale, principalii beneficiari ar fi tot firmele  occidentale care-i aprovizioneaza pe rusi.

Iar responsabilitatea pentru atacurile devastatoate rusesti din Ucraina nu este a noastra, m-am uitat pe site-ul GUR si la tarile care aprovizioneaza masina de razboi rusa si n-am gasit Romania.

E foarte convenabil pentru tarile si firmele occidentale care aprovizioneaza masina de razboi rusa sa se discute despre cat de barbari sunt rusii pentru ca au lovit un spital de copii, asa cum se face in mass-media romaneasca, dar nu se discuta nimic despre armamentul folosit de rusi si care contine componente esentiale occidentale.

Si asa s-a ajuns in situatia in care americanii ne cer sa dam  sub o forma sau alta un sistem Patriot catre Ucraina, desi americanii sunt principalii responsabili pentru suferintele ucrainienilor.

Iar Romania va pierde niste bani pentru profiturile unor firme occidentale care prospera datorita acestui razboi care dureaza de peste doi ani.

Acesta e adevarul care ar fi trebuit sa fie spus si americanilor cand ne-au cerut Patriotul, americani care au manageriat dezastruos tot acest conflict ruso-ucrainian, care nu se stie cum se va termina, Rusia fiind o putere nucleara , iar seful CIA  a afirmat in septembrie 2024 ca Rusia era gata-gata sa atace nuclear Ucraina in 2022 :

Șeful CIA dezvăluie momentul în care Putin era gata să bombardeze nuclear Ucraina

„A fost un moment în toamna anului 2022 când cred că a existat un risc real de utilizare potenţială a armelor nucleare tactice” de către Rusia în Ucraina, a spus şeful CIA, William Burns, dar el crede că astfel de preocupări nu ar trebui luate prea în serios.

„Nu am crezut niciodată că ar trebui să fim intimidaţi în mod inutil de acest lucru”, a adăugat el.

La momentul respectiv din 2022, trupele ruse fuseseră alungate din nordul Ucrainei şi abandonaseră Hersonul în sud, ceea ce a dus la convingerea că Rusia ar putea încerca să folosească o armă nucleară în cazul unei înfrângeri ruşinoase. În orice caz, linia frontului s-a stabilizat la scurt timp după aceea.

Burns a dezvăluit că Joe Biden, preşedintele SUA, l-a însărcinat să-i transmită un avertisment direct lui Serghei Narîşkin, şeful serviciului rus de informaţii externe, în cadrul unei reuniuni care a avut loc în Turcia în noiembrie 2022, „pentru a arăta foarte clar care ar fi consecinţele unei astfel de escaladări”. Iar o abordare similară este în vigoare şi astăzi, a adăugat Burns.

Episodul povestit, a spus el, demonstrează că ameninţările Moscovei nu ar trebui întotdeauna luate la propriu.

Bill Burns a făcut aceste dezvăluiri la Londra, alături de şeful MI6, la un eveniment organizat de Financial Times. 

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Strategia americanilor a fost descrisa foarte bine de Zelenski ,  americanii

would like Kyiv “to win in such a way that Russia does not lose,”

Si asta se vede in armamentul primit de ucrainieni, au primit tancuri Leopard 1 pe care le-au returnat din cauza ca erau prea uzate, desi americanii aveau mii de tancuri Abrams stocate.

Ucrainienii au primit 31 de Abrams tarziu, prin septembrie 2023, cum sau cum se spune

“ TOO  LITTLE, TOO  LATE “

Polonia a primit mai multe tancuri, 116 Abrams uzate ale USMC , primul lot de 14 Abrams a ajuns in Polonia in iunie 2023.

Avioanele A-10 , desi cerute express de ucrainieni, nu le-au fost livrate ucrainienilor., in schimb americanii vor sa dea A-10 Iordaniei :

Feasibility of Jordan to Use and Maintain A-10 Fleet

The committee directs the Secretary of Defense to report to the Committees on Armed Services of the Senate and the House of Representatives, not later than February 1, 2025, on the feasibility and advisability of transferring retiring A-10 aircraft to Jordan. The report should include an analysis of Jordan’s ability to maintain the aircraft on their own.

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De asemenea vor sa dea si F-16 Iordaniei :

The committee also recognizes the need for additional critical capabilities, including     F-16 aircraft, to counter growing air threats, including unmanned aerial systems, within
Jordan and across the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The committee recognizes the importance of the Jordanian Air Force’s proposal to acquire Block 52    F-16 fighter aircraft. Therefore, the committee directs the Secretary of Defense, with the concurrence of the Secretary of State, to provide a briefing to the congressional defense and foreign relations committees, not later than February 1, 2025, on any current or future plans to utilize existing authorities to increase air defense for counter unmanned aerial systems in Jordan to protect United States ally and partner interests, and the status of efforts to work with the Jordanian Ministry of Defense to identify needed Block 52 F-16 fighter aircraft that Jordan can acquire as expeditiously as possible, and any other security assistance jointly identified by the United States and Jordan.

Ucraina a primit tarziu F-16, in 2024, cu piloti nepregatiti, pentru ca instruirea pilotilor ucrainieni a inceput in 2023, la un an de la inceperea conflictului cu Rusia. Ucraina a primit F-16 de prin Europa, USA n-a dat nimic , desi avea destule avioane disponibile pe care le putea transfera Ucrainei.

Daca se agitau mai mult , in doi ani USA si aliatii sai puteau sa dea chiar si avioane noi Ucrainei.

Varianta suedeza era foarte buna pentru Ucraina., februarie 2023 :

After all, Ukraine has limited resources and must disperse aircraft basing due to risks of Russian missile attacks — and a report by a British think tank calls out the Gripen as “by far the most suitable candidate in terms of operational requirements.”

Indeed, in December Kyiv specifically requested Gripen-Cs from Stockholm, only to be politely rebuffed.

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Ce scrie in raportul RUSI din noiembrie 2022:

The decision to supply a Western fighter would inherently be heavily influenced, and most likely ultimately decided, by political factors. In the long term, US-supplied aircraft are likely to form a large part of the Ukrainian Air Force inventory due to political, industrial and financial considerations. However, while Ukrainian airbases are still at high risk of Russian missile strikes, the long, high-quality runways and large hangers with extensive ground support equipment required to operate most US fighters would be difficult to build without being observed and hit. It is worth noting that of the currently available Western fighter aircraft that could possibly be suppled, the Swedish Saab Gripen C/D offers by far the most suitable candidate in terms of operational requirements. It was designed from the outset for ease of maintenance, and can be refuelled, re-armed and given basic maintenance by teams of just six ground crew using two  vehicles on small airbases or highways in cold weather. Moreover, only one of each crew needs to be a highly trained maintainer; the rest can be conscripts or even troops. Conceptually, the Swedish Air Force has always emphasised low-level air superiority tactics from dispersed bases, in a similar manner to how the Ukrainian Air Force currently operates, and so the Gripen was designed with ground support equipment and maintenance requirements compatible with that approach. The electronic warfare suite on the Gripen C/D is also optimised specifically for countering Russian fighter and SAM radars. Other factors that make Gripen particularly suited to Ukrainian operational needs are that it can fire the very long-range European Meteor missile, which, thanks to its ramjet propulsion design, is less adversely affected by being launched from low and slow than traditional rocket-powered missiles such as R-27 or AIM-120 AMRAAM, and Gripen was also designed from the outset with an anti-ship capability.

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Daca aveau ucrainienii in vara lui 2023 Gripen cu Meteor altfel s-ar fi desfasurat luptele cu rusii !

SAAB Gripen si Meteor:

The level of integration between the fighter´s sensors, avionics and the Meteor makes all the difference. Gripen – the first fighter to operate the Meteor missile, several years ahead of all other fighters – has the most comprehensive and mature integration of the missile, making it the ultimate Meteor platform.

“Even when fired at very long-range, the Meteor retains its high energy state. This means it will have unique probability of intercept for any mission and against any target,” says Jussi Halmetoja, Gripen pilot and Operations Advisor at Saab.

Maximized Lethality

The Meteor is fitted with proximity and impact fuses and has a fragmentation warhead designed to intercept any type of target. The proximity fuse subsystems can detect the target and calculate the optimum time to detonate the warhead.

“The Meteor delivers total target destruction. Equipped with an active radar seeker, the missile acquires and tracks its target, providing terminal guidance for optimal intercept. Be it an enemy aircraft, a cruise missile or even an unmanned aerial vehicle, the Meteor can intercept at ranges of well over 100 km,” says Jussi Halmetoja.

Decisive Network-Enabled Capability with Gripen

Unlike some of the other platforms with the Meteor integrated, the Gripen integration of Meteor features a two-way datalink that allows for crucial information exchange during various engagement phases. This provides the pilot with information such as missile kinematic and tactical status during the whole intercept, enabling maximized lethality and combat awareness.

Essentially, this means that the Meteor offers operational effectiveness like no other missile in the prolific dense electronic warfare environments of today and in the future. For the Indian Air Force, Gripen and Meteor’s unique harmonisation offers the next level of combat effectiveness. “It’s an absolute game-changer,” states Jussi Halmetoja.

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In februarie 2023 suedezii propuneau Indiei tandemul Gripen-Meteor , deci daca nu erau ingrijorati ca exportau acest tandem catre India , care colcaie de agenti rusi, puteau sa-l dea si la ucrainieni, la raza de actiune de peste 100 km a Meteor, ar fi fost numai bun in lupta cu rusii.

In concluzie, ucrainienilor li s-a dat armament cu taraita, cat sa se lupte cu rusii, nu sa-i invinga pe rusi. Daca mai punem la socoteala si livrarile de componente electronice pentru armata rusa, avem imaginea completa a conflictului din Ucraina  care se va sfarsi rau pentru ucrainieni.

Responsabilitatea acestui esec apartine in principal  americanilor si nu vad nici un motiv pentru  contribuabilul roman de a suporta financiar acest esec, nu noi avem mainile patate de sangele ucrainienilor !

O alta responsabilitate a acestui esec ii apartine lui Zelenski, care nu e capabil sa-i convinga pe  aliatii americani sa stopeze furnizarea de electronica pentru rusi.

Dar cu astfel de “aliati “ ,  cine mai are nevoie de dusmani !

Autor: Caudillo