TehnoMil

By Caudillo:

In 6 septembrie 2024 US DOD a publicat niste date foarte interesante despre productia de armament si munitii americane si despre ajutorul militar dat Ucrainei .

Ce gasim in acest Fact sheet :

• The United States has invested $5.3 billion to expand domestic production capacity of the following munitions or subcomponents (NOTE: entries reflect increases from 2022 to current production rates):
  • 155mm Projectiles: 14,400 per month to 40,000 per month (178% increase)
  • 155mm Propelling Charge: 14,494 per month to 18,000 per month (24% increase)
  • GMLRS: 833 per month to 1,167 per month (40% increase)
  • Javelin: 175 per month to 200 per month (14% increase)
  • AIM-9X: 116 per month to 137 per month (18% increase)
  • PAC-3 MSE: 21 per month to 42 per month (100% increase)
  • HIMARS: 5 per month to 8 per month (60% increase)
  • M777 Tubes: 11 per month to 18 per month (64% increase)

Sursa: defense.gov

Mai gasim si niste referiri la Romania :

• Sites in Germany, Spain, Hungary, South Africa, and Australia plan to increase production up to 700,000 artillery shells and up to 10,000 tons of gunpowder per year by 2025; this includes a new gunpowder factory in Romania as part of a project developed with the European Commission and a new artillery ammunition facility in Germany.
• Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain will co-produce up to 1,000 Patriot GEM-T missiles in Germany.

Sursa: defense.gov

Acu’ ucrainienii nu au fost prea incantati de productia de munitie de 155 mm,sperau la mai mult , bazandu-se pe niste declaratii americane:

Monthly production of 155mm artillery ammunition in the United States should reach 80,000 rounds this fall, significantly exceeding the previously approved production expansion schedule. This prognosis was announced by Douglas Bush, chief of the U.S. Army logistics, in an interview published with the July–August issue of the Defense Acquisition print magazine, now openly available on the U.S. government website. The interview was taken back in May, however, these are still the only known relevant figures at the moment.

So, according to these figures and taking into account the gradual increase in production volumes, the U.S. should be producing about 70,000 to 75,000 artillery rounds in the 155-millimeter caliber per month as of the end of this summer. This growth is significant in several ways but the most important part is how it can impact the ongoing conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine through military aid allocations.

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Ucrainienii au o problema cu superioritatea artileriei ruse, cel putin asa apare in media ucrainiana :

Still, even with such progress, the industry is still running miles behind the actual demand. Ukraine’s war against russia shows that active warfare requires Ukrainian forces to fire 15,000 artillery rounds a day, as disclosed August 20th by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, although he did not specify the caliber(s) of ammunition referenced

That makes a monthly consumption of 450,000 shells by the Ukrainian side, most likely comprising all types of artillery, including 155mm, 152mm, 122mm, 105mm, and mortar shells. Meanwhile, russian forces spend even greater quantities, generally three times as much, reaching 44,500 rounds a day or roughly 1.3 million a month.

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Tabelul se refera la perioadele august-septembrie 2023, octombrie-decembrie 2023, ianuarie-mai 2024, iulie-august 2024.

Din tabelul prezentat de Syrskyi rezulta clar superioritatea artileriei ruse. Media ucrainiana detaliaza cum s-a ajuns la aceasta superioritate, sunt preluate niste date dintr-un raport RUSI

E vorba intre altele de importurile rusesti de crom fara de care nu s-ar putea fabrica arileria rusa :

Russia produces between 1.5 and 2 million tonnes of chrome ore per year from the Saranovo Rudnaya mine and in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. Russia’s demand for chromium is around 1.47 million tonnes per year, with a growth trend to 1.6 million tonnes by 2025 and 1.73 million tonnes by 2030. About 55.2% of this consumption is covered by imports, despite Russia technically producing enough by weight to meet its needs, because Russian ore has a lower chromium content.

In 2021, Kazakhstan was the primary supplier of chromium to Russia, accounting for 86.8% of imports. Although supplies from Kazakhstan have significantly decreased since 2022, it is likely that Kazakhstan remains a major supplier of chromium-containing goods to Russia. Information on other countries of interest, along with the dollar value of those supplies, are provided in Table 2 below.

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In raportul RUSI se mai scrie si despre tehnologia occidentala importata de rusi pentru fabricarea tevilor de tun :

Automated radial forging machines are much more precise, as they allow for the selection of the forging angle, forging diameter, and pressure.It is noteworthy that the Soviet Union also imported its barrel-forging equipment from the West: a CIA report from 1982 covers the procurement of 26 automated rotary forges from Austrian company Gesellschaft fuer Fertigungstechnik und Maschinenbau (GFM).

One machine, an SXP 55, was installed at a Perm factory in 1975 and provided the capacity to produce artillery barrels up to 203 mm in calibre.

The CIA estimated that a large-calibre barrel could be forged using this technology in two to 10 minutes, and that the USSR had procured sufficient spares for 15 years of operations. The same report estimated that the Soviets could produce 14,000 barrels per year, although this only relates to the production of unfinished barrels.

Rotary forging machines have a number of civil applications as well as military outputs, and it is possible that many of these GFM machines were imported for civil production, although Russia’s mobilisation laws do allow for the transfer of capacity and machinery from civil to military production.

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Aici o masina GFM SX-40 vanduta in China:

Si ajungem si la CNC-urile importate de Rusia , chestiune documentata detaliat de ucrainieni .

Un articol despre CNC-urile taiwaneze care ajung in Rusia :

Precision machine tools, also called Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine tools, are the backbone of Russian military production, as they enable advanced arms manufacturing such as missiles, aircraft, or radars. There is not a single Russian tank, plane, or APC that does not have parts made with foreign CNC machine tools. According to Russian customs records analyzed by trade data firm NBD, between March and September 2023, Russia imported at least 193 Taiwanese-made machining centers worth a total of nearly $29 million, Russia’s Insider reported. Additionally, close to 80% of all Taiwanese machine tools shipped to Russia are being transshipped through third countries, especially Türkiye and China.

Sursa

A Russian importer called “I Machine Technology” has imported the largest volume of Taiwanese machines. Data shows that from March to October 2023, I Machine procured over $17 million worth of Taiwanese machine tools, with 28 units shipped via Türkiye, 37 via China, and 16 directly from Taiwan.

Sursa

“The accuracy and productivity of turning and milling machines from China or Taiwan are similar,” said Dr. Mykola Skrypnyk, CEO of Abplanalp Ukraine. “However, in what concerns electric discharge and grinding machines, the quality, functionality and performance of the Taiwanese machines is higher compared to those of the Chinese ones.”

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Alt articol  ucrainian despre importurile rusesti de tehnologie:

At least 70% of all Russian CNC machine tools are imported, largely from the US, EU, and Japan. Over 80% of all CNCs end up in Russia’s military production facilities.

CNC (Computer Numerical Control) machine tools are automated robot machines using software to manufacture various metal products without direct human intervention. CNC machinery is a crucial means of production for advanced arms manufacturing such as missiles, aircraft, or radars.

WСNC machines are the backbone of Russia’s military production and a window of opportunity for trying to stop the aggressor, ESCU said.

With a CNC, a computer program does all the necessary shaping and cutting. The machine tool uses a drill bit mounted on a head that moves in three dimensions to automatically carve digitally modeled shapes into metal.

There is not a single Russian tank, plane, or APC that does not have parts made with foreign CNC machine tools. Even nuclear weapons are manufactured with the help of CNC machinery. With the help of CNCs, Russia produces:

Aircraft components: engine components, landing gear parts, and structural elements.

Weapon systems: firearm components, missile guidance systems, and other weapon parts.

Armor and vehicle components: body panels, turrets, etc;

Electronic and communication equipment: communication equipment, and radar systems for military use.Western CNC machine tools are irreplaceable. According to the annual World Machine Tool Survey conducted by Gardner Business Media, Russia was one of the top 10 importers of machine tools in 2022.

The absence of precision machine tool manufacturing at home makes Russia dependent on Western-made CNCs. Subject matter experts estimate that at least 70% of all Russian CNC machine tools are imported, and more than 80% of all CNCs end up in the military production facilities of the aggressor state.

While China remains a global leader in providing Russia with CNC machinery, Germany is a frontrunner in Europe, with at least $242 million worth of tools supplied to the aggressor state since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Sursa

The most influential manufacturers are DMG Mori, Trumpf, Fair Friend Group, Haas, Sodick, Dr. Johannes Heidenhain GmbH, Maier Werkzeugmaschinen GmbH & Co., KG HEDELIUS, GF Machining Solutions, Yamazaki Mazak Corporation, Okuma, Index Traub, Hermle, FICEP, Nakamura-Tome, Willemin-Macodel.

Japan and Germany are the top-two CNC producers whose machines help Russia produce high-tech weapons.

Sursa

According to Bloomberg, Russia now makes more money from oil revenues than before the invasion. Consequently, it faces no issues with increasing war financing to record levels, with 2024 military expenditures set to increase from 6.4 to 10.8 trillion rubles.

In the first half of 2023, Russia imported almost $800 million worth of high-priority battlefield technology, despite export controls on Western technology, according to the Atlantic Council’s Russia Sanctions Database.

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O alta confirmare despre importurile rusesti de CNC-uri germane:

German industrial equipment continues to reach Russia despite the EU sanctions, potentially aiding its military production capabilities, according to an investigation by German public broadcaster SWR aired on 10 October 2024, as per ARD’s Tagesschau.

The investigation revealed that more than 300 machines capable of manufacturing vehicle parts or ammunition were delivered to Russia in 2023, often through third countries like Türkiye. These deliveries reportedly play a significant role in Russia’s efforts to maintain its military capabilities amid ongoing sanctions.

The SWR investigation identified more than 30 German manufacturers whose machines were imported to Russia last year, many of them based in Baden-Württemberg, a traditional center for mechanical engineering. In about two-thirds of the cases, the machines were imported to Russia via Türkiye

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Confruntati cu realitatea dura , ucrainienii spera ca au gasit solutia pentru a reduce diferenta fata de artileria rusa , octombrie 2024 :

The intensity of artillery fire from russian invasion forces in Ukraine has significantly decreased following a series of drone strikes on large ammunition depots inside russian territory, according to Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine.

In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Havryliuk revealed that the current artillery fire ratio between Ukrainian and russian forces is about 1:2. This marks an improvement from early summer 2024, when the ratio was 1:3, and even more so compared to the beginning of the year, when the ratio heavily favored russia at 1:7, 1:8, or worse.

During the summer of 2024, when the fire ratio was 1:3, russia used approximately 45,000 shells per day. Based on the current ratio of 1:2, it is estimated that russian forces are now firing around 30,000 shells daily, assuming Ukraine continues to use about 15,000 shells a day as before.

Artillery is the backbone of russia’s offensive and defensive capabilities, so reducing russia’s artillery superiority is critical for shifting the dynamics on the frontline.

Deputy Minister Havryliuk believes this reduction in russian firepower is attributed directly to Ukraine’s drone strikes on russian ammunition depots between September 18 and October 9. One of the most impactful strikes occurred in mid-September, when aerial suicide drones hit the 107th Arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU), a massive facility spanning 5 square kilometers. The explosions were so powerful that they caused a small earthquake.

Sursa

Intr-adevar, la Toropets a fost o explozie uriasa:

However, according to pro–Russian milblogger Anastasia Kashevarova, hundreds of Russians may have been killed in the strike, with the facility’s utility block alone accommodating 200 people.

On 20 September, Colonel Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, estimated that the strike had caused 30,000 tonnes of munitions to explode, the size of which he equated to 750,000 shells, adding that the strike destroyed two to three months of Russia’s ammunition supply. The depot reportedly stored not only artillery shells, but also Iskander missiles, Tochka-U ballistic missiles and glide bombs and it is unclear if his bomb damage assessment includes both missiles and artillery ammunition

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Este evident ca artileria rusa le cauzeaza ucrainienilor mari pierderi,se observa in imaginile  de pe Telegram intensitatea bombardamentelor rusesti:

Daca mai adaugam si activitatea aviatiei ruse , intelegem situatia dificila a AFU:

Sursa :

Au fost publicate imagini ale unui atac asupra unui avion de vânătoare rusesc Su-34, probabil cu o bombă cu vid ODAB-1500. Videoclipul a fost filmat în Volchansk, regiunea Harkov. Oficial, nu există nicio bombă ODAB-1500, dar prezența bombei a fost confirmată de generalul colonel Alexei Kim în martie 2024. Poate că bomba ODAB-1500 a fost creată în Rusia în 2000. Primele bombe ODAB-500 au început să fie produse în anii 1970 de către Întreprinderea Unitară Federală de Stat SNPP „Basalt”, dezvoltată de biroul de proiectare GSKB-47. În timpul utilizării în luptă, bomba de aer ODAB-1500 este activată succesiv: mai întâi, substanța activă este pulverizată și apoi este oxidată în aer cu aprindere și detonare ulterioară. Pe baza datelor de pe ODAB-500, raza de distrugere prin sarcina termobară a bombei ODAB-1500 este de cel puțin 500 de metri, cu o presiune de 120 de atmosfere la epicentrul exploziei. Factorul de deteriorare a bombei, radiația termică și creșterea presiunii atmosferice. O zonă mare afectată face posibilă reducerea costului muniției prin reducerea cerințelor pentru precizia loviturii.

In concluzie, ar trebui ca Romania sa invete ceva din acest razboi nenorocit.

In primul rand, ca si cantitatea in sine e o calitate, respectiv ca Rusia a reusit sa produca munitie si armament in cantitati suficiente cat sa puna in dificultate AFU.

Recunosc ca am scris

 “ Văd că mitul superiorității industriei private asupra celei de stat nu a dispărut.
Războiul din Ucraina a arătat că regele e gol , respectiv un eșec de proporții al industriei occidentale. “

atunci nu stiam despre infuzia masiva de tehnologie occidentala in industria rusa, ce sa faci , subiectul e evitat in presa autohtona.

 Realitatea e ca fara calitatea utilajelor occidentale industria rusa nu ar fi atins niciodata  performantele mentionate de ucrainieni  in productia de armament si munitie.

“ In the first half of 2023, Russia imported almost $800 million worth of high-priority battlefield technology “

la banii astia rusii au obtinut o productie uriasa de armament si munitie.

In privinta productiei americane de armament si munitie, rezultatele sunt interpretabile. Exista o crestere, dar nu stiu daca in caz de urgenta Romania va avea acces la armamentul american.

La Himars de exemplu, americanii produc  acum 8 bucati /luna.

Polonezii vor sa cumpere 500 de Himars, asta inseamna productia actuala pe 5 ani, deci daca vom avea nevoie de mai multe Himars, nu stiu daca vom avea acces la ele.

Poland has taken decisive action to strengthen its artillery capabilities by replacing its aging Soviet-made BM-21 Grad rocket launchers with advanced systems from the United States and South Korea. The Polish Army is set to receive 500 American HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) from the U.S. and 288 Homar-K systems, a South Korean Chunmoo rocket launcher mounted on the locally produced Jelcz 8×8 trucks.

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La Javelin productia e de 200 bucati/luna, adica 2400 bucati/an, adica in caz de conflict nu cred ca ajunge ceva consistent si pe la militarii romani.

Asa ca logic ar fi sa dezvoltam o alternativa la aceste importuri, un exemplu ar fi dronele kamikaze produse de ucrainieni prin dormitoare si despre care am scris pe Tehnomil, sunt si ieftine si accesibile:

Dronele long-range folosite de ucrainieni  de asemenea s-au dovedit foarte eficiente, n-ar fi rau sa producem ceva asemanator. Chiar daca rusii inca au superioritatea in artilerie, ucrainienii au mai redus din decalaj cu ajutorul dronelor long-range, la Toropets au dat o lovitura grea armatei ruse.

Ucrainienii folosesc multe tipuri de drone long-range,  un exemplu e Lyuty:

Alt exemplu e A-22 Foxbat drone:

On April 4, 2024, reports from Russian media disclosed the use of two Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat aircraft modified by Ukrainian forces to serve as kamikaze drones, to conduct two strikes in the Republic of Tatarstan, situated over 1,200 km away from the Ukrainian border. Targeting a Shahed-136 drone manufacturing facility and an oil refinery, the attack marked the first occurrence of such a strategy within this region and the first use of such UAVs since the start of the current war.

The basis of the drones involved in these attacks, the Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, also known as the Valor in the United States and the Foxbat in the UK and Australia, is a Ukrainian-designed sports light aircraft manufactured by Aeroprakt. Designed by Yuri Yakovlev, it features a distinctive high-wing design and tricycle landing gear. With its first flight in October 1996 and introduction in 1999, the A-22 has remained in production since 2000. Its structure combines metal with composite materials for key components, offering durability and lightness. Notable for its extensive glazing, the A-22 employs a 3-axis control system and flaperons, resulting in a stall speed of 52 km/h. Interestingly, it is supplied either as a ready-to-fly factory-built aircraft or as a kit that can be assembled in approximately 500 man-hours, comprising 152 pieces.

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Ucrainienii mai au si Sokil-300, ei zic ca are range 3300 km:

Iar importanta acestor drone ucrainiene s-a vazut recent la BRICS, Putin a fost atentionat de un ziarist BBC despre prezenta acestor drone in Rusia, iar Putin nu a minimalizat aceste drone long-range :

„Din cauza ta, dronele zboară acum peste tot în Rusia!” Jurnalistul l-a ridiculizat public pe Putin.

Tot aceste drone long-range s-ar putea sa forteze Rusia sa incheie un armistitiu partial cu Ucraina :

Preşedintele Ucrainei, Volodimir Zelenski, a sugerat în mod deschis, pentru prima dată de la începutul războiului, posibilitatea de a negocia un armistiţiu parţial cu Rusia pentru a reduce intensitatea conflictului, în faţa reticenţei generale faţă de „planul său pentru victorie”, în care solicită asistenţă militară urgentă pentru a forţa Rusia să negocieze o pace care să nu implice cedarea teritoriului ucrainean, relatează miercuri agenția EFE, citată de Agerpres.

„Noi nu le atacăm infrastructura energetică, iar ei nu o atacă pe a noastră. Ar putea duce acest lucru la încheierea fazei fierbinţi a războiului? Cred că da”, a declarat Zelenski săptămâna trecută în cadrul unei întâlniri cu jurnaliştii.

Potrivit presei anglo-saxone din această săptămână, care citează surse apropiate de dosar, reprezentanţi ucraineni şi ruşi ar fi iniţiat deja contacte pentru o astfel de încetare a atacurilor reciproce asupra obiectivelor legate de sistemul energetic, ceea ce ar oferi Kievului asigurarea că va putea face faţă iernii fără alte bombardamente asupra centralelor sale electrice şi ar pune capăt distrugerii rafinăriilor ruseşti de către dronele ucrainene.

Discuţiile pentru un armistiţiu la acest capitol ar viza reluarea unui proces care a început deja în vară cu medierea Qatarului, care continuă să faciliteze contactele între cele două tabere beligerante, şi care a fost subminat, aşa cum s-a spus atunci, de începerea în primele zile ale lunii august a operaţiunii transfrontaliere ucrainene în regiunea rusă Kursk, unde Kievul controlează o parte din teritoriu.

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Pentru ca desi rusii au pus cope-cage si pe instalatiile petrolifere,

la 1000-3000 de km raza de actiune a dronelor ucrainiene, rusii n-au cum sa puna cope cage pe toate rafinariile lor.

Importanta acestor drone long-range a fost inteleasa si de americani care sprijina industria ucrainiana :

Aceste drone ucrainiene nu sunt sofisticate precum Tomahawkurile americane, sunt “Tomahawkurile saracului” cum se scrie pe Tehnomil, dar si-au facut treaba.

Zelensky a cerut si Tomahawkuri originale,  acestea ar fi necesare in opinia lui Zelensky pentru o victorie impotriva rusilor

American journalists have reported that, as part of the undisclosed details of his Victory Plan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy allegedly requested Washington to supply long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Source: The New York Times, as reported by European Pravda

An unnamed senior US official said that Zelenskyy purportedly asked for Tomahawks as a component of a non-nuclear deterrence package – a key aspect of his proposed Victory Plan. 

The Tomahawk missiles have a range of over 1,500 kilometres, approximately seven times farther than the ATACMS missiles, which Ukraine received in limited numbers.

The US official described this request from Kyiv as “a totally unfeasible request”.

Sursa

Președintele ucrainean Volodimir Zelenski e supărat pe Casa Albă că a divulgat presei (New York Times) informația că a cerut rachete cu rază lungă de acțiune Tomahawk și că oficialii americani nu sunt siguri că le folosește cum trebuie.

„Acestea au fost informații confidențiale între Ucraina și Casa Albă. Cum ar trebui să înțelegem aceste mesaje? Deci înseamnă că între parteneri nu există nimic confidențial?”, a declarat Zelenski, într-o dezbatere citată de Politico.

Sursa

Io zic ca pana la Tomahawkuri am putea sa urmam exemplul ucrainienilor, luam un IAR 823, sper ca mai avem drepturile de autor la el si il “dronizam” asa cum au facut ucrainenii cu Foxbat, tot obtinem ceva util armatei romane.

Din pacate, in aceasta situatie in care productia de armament in tarile occidentale nu este la nivel foarte mare, cu riscurile de rigoare care apar pentru tari ca Romania , care si-a neglijat industria de aparare, a mai aparut o stire care nu stiu cat e de adevarata, tinind cont de campania electorala din Romania , dar care e ingrijoratoare:

Armata nu mai primește Watchkeeper X. 300 de milioane de lei a încasat în avans firma israeliană Elbit Systems Ltd. de la Ministerul Apărării Naționale (MApN) pentru a furniza primele trei sisteme de drone Watchkeeper X. Aceste urmau să fie recepționate etapizat până în vara anului 2025.

DeFapt.ro a aflat în exclusivitate că israelienii de la Elbit Systems Ltd nu mai pot onora contractul în termen, chiar dacă au încasat bani în avans. În acest sens, au solicitat MApN să recunoască un „Eveniment de Forță Majoră”: „războiul din Fâșia Gaza a afectat modul de îndeplinire de către Elbit a obligațiilor asumate prin contract”.

Sursa

Asa cum am scris, e campanie electorala si nu stiu cat adevar contine aceasta stire, vad ca nu mai apare pe site-ul DeFapt.ro , curios e ca si ucrainienii de la Militarnyi au preluat aceasta stire :

In December 2022, the Romanian Ministry of National Defence signed a framework agreement worth RON 1.891 billion ($411.20 million) to purchase seven Watchkeeper X unmanned systems from the Israeli company Elbit Systems. At the time of signing the contract, it was reported that each system would include 3 UAVs, which means 21 drones.

It was planned to produce a UAV airframe, a ground control center container, and a number of electrical and mechanical elements in Romania.

Subsequently, on June 19, 2023, the first firm contract was signed, under which three Watchkeeper X unmanned systems were ordered. The contract was worth approximately RON 825 million ($179.40 million).

Within the contract, the Ministry of National Defence paid an advance of almost RON 300 million ($65.24 million). At the same time, Elbit Systems undertook to fulfill the order fully by June 19, 2025.

The first tests of the new drones were scheduled for spring 2025.

However, Elbit Systems filed a request with the customer for a declaration of force majeure, claiming that the war in the Gaza Strip had affected Elbit’s ability to fulfill its contractual obligations and that they could no longer meet the delivery dates for the three unmanned systems.

DeFapt asked Elbit Systems to comment on this decision. However, Elbit representatives said they did not wish to comment on the matter.

At the same time, the Romanian Ministry of National Defence told the media that it is considering this request and has not yet imposed penalties for failure to fulfill the contract.

Sursa

Poate ca se vor clarifica lucrurile, eu nu stiu de vreo reactie oficiala a MApN, ar fi necesar ca opinia publica din Romania sa stie care e adevarul , am dat deja 300 milioane ron ( 60 milioane euro ) avans pentru dronele astea si ar fi circoteca la maxim sa nu primim nici o drona in urmatorii ani .

Dar poate e doar un zvon , nu stam asa de rau.

Autor: Caudillo