February 18th, 2025 
admin 
By Caudillo:
In 9 septembrie 2024 apare Raportul Draghi, “The future of European competitiveness”
Multe lucruri interesante, voi cita doar o parte din el :
Gas retail and wholesale prices are currently between three to five times the prices in the US, while historically, prices in the EU have been two to three times higher than those in the US. Electricity retail prices – specifically those for industrial sectors – are currently two to three times those in the US and China. Historically, retail electricity prices in the EU have been up to 80% higher than those in the US while moving around the same level as in China.
Si cu asta am stabilit cum sta Europa la preturile le gaze si electricitate, sunt mai multe detalii in raport.
Despre gaze gasim o comparatie pe un site Statista
Monthly natural gas prices in the United States and Europe 2014-2024
Published by Statista Research Department, Jan 8, 2025
The average monthly price for natural gas in the United States amounted to 3.02 nominal U.S. dollars per million British thermal units (Btu) in December 2024. By contrast, natural gas prices in Europe were about four times higher than those in the U.S. Prices for Europe tend to be notably higher than those in the U.S. as the latter benefits from being a major hydrocarbon producer.
Daca ne uitam pe graficul Statista observam ca in decembrie 2024 preturile la gaze erau de 4 ori mai mari in Europa decat in US, dar au fost si diferente mult mai mari. Observam ca in iunie 2020 raportul era aproape egal 1,75/1,62 dupa care urmeaza o crestere a raportului preturilor la gaze Europa/US, valorile cele mai mari ale acestui raport aparand dupa invazia Rusiei in Ucraina, 24.02.2022 , sau spre sfarsitul anului 2021, deci e evident ca odata cu inrautatirea relatiilor intre Rusia si Ucraina preturile gazelor au luat-o razna in Europa, dupa inceperea invaziei Rusiei au ajuns la un maxim de neimaginat , 70,04/8,79 Europa/US in August 2022.
Au aparut si niste acuze intre partenerii NATO pe aceasta tema 12.10.2022 :
Before the war in Ukraine, Russia was Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier, with a share of 55%, mainly due to lower prices compared to LNG deliveries. However, after the war broke out Europe began to introduce sanctions against Russia, reducing purchases from Gazprom, while the Russian state-owned energy giant responded by decreasing its gas deliveries to EU countries.
The EU was forced to start importing LNG, from the US as well as other countries, but the US’ share has increased sharply, from 28% to 45%. On the other hand, deliveries from Russia have dropped by 75%.
The US has been criticized by French Finance Minister Bruno Le Mair and German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.
Le Mair recently told French MPs that the conflict in Ukraine must not result in the US’ economic domination and a weakened Europe.
The US should not be allowed to dominate the global energy market as the EU suffers the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, said Le Mair.
He also said it is unacceptable to let the US export LNG at prices four times higher than those paid by companies in the country. The French minister also called for establishing a more balanced relationship between the US and Europe.
Evident ca americanii au respins acuzele europenilor 24.11.2022 :
“We are really at a historic juncture,” the senior EU official said, arguing that the double hit of trade disruption from U.S. subsidies and high energy prices risks turning public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance. “America needs to realize that public opinion is shifting in many EU countries.”
Another top official, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, called on Washington to respond to European concerns. “Americans — our friends — take decisions which have an economic impact on us,” he said in an interview with POLITICO.
The U.S. rejected Europe’s complaints. “The rise in gas prices in Europe is caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin’s energy war against Europe, period,” a spokesperson for Biden’s National Security Council said. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to Europe “increased dramatically and enabled Europe to diversify away from Russia,” the NSC spokesperson said.
The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down.
Dar mai gasim si alte interpretari ale situatiei , 15.11.2022 :
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) loaded on to tankers at U.S. ports costs nearly four times more on the other side of the Atlantic, largely due to the market disruption caused by a near-total loss of Russian deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine.
The European Commission has come under fierce pressure to sketch out a gas price cap plan, but some countries, led by Germany, worry such a measure could prompt shippers to send gas cargoes elsewhere. The Commission is also reluctant, and its proposal issued Tuesday sets such demanding requirements that they weren’t met even during this summer’s price emergency.
But a large part of the trade is in European hands, according to America’s biggest LNG exporter.
“Ninety percent of everything we produce is sold to third parties, and most of our customers are utilities — the Enels, the Endesas, the Naturgys, the Centricas and the Engies of the world,” said Corey Grindal, executive vice president for worldwide trading at Cheniere Energy, rattling off the names of big-name European energy providers.
Cheniere, which this year saw 70 percent of its exported LNG sail to Europe, sells its gas on a fix-priced scheme based on the American benchmark price, dubbed Henry Hub, which is currently at about $6 per million British thermal units.
On average, the price across all Cheniere contracts is 115 percent of Henry Hub plus $3, Grindal said. That works out to about €33 per megawatt-hour. For comparison, the current EU benchmark rate, dubbed TTF, is €119 per MWh.
It’s a big markup for whoever is reselling those LNG cargoes into Europe’s wholesale market, profiting from fears that there may not be enough gas to last the winter.
The difference between U.S. and EU gas prices hasn’t gone unnoticed by European politicians — but most of the finger-pointing has been at American producers rather than the resellers closer to home.
“In today’s geopolitical context, among countries that support Ukraine there are two categories being created in the gas market: those who are paying dearly and those who are selling at very high prices,” French President Emmanuel Macron told a group of industrial players last week. “The United States is a producer of cheap gas that they are selling us at a high price … I don’t think that’s friendly.”
Macron’s dig conveniently ignored that the largest European holder of long-term U.S. gas contracts is none other than France’s own TotalEnergies.
At the company’s latest earnings call last month, TotalEnergies CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire trumpeted the fact that the firm’s access to more than 10 million tons of U.S. LNG annually “is a huge advantage for our traders, who can arbitrage between the U.S. and Europe.”
“And now, given the price of LNG, each cargo represents something like $80 million, even $100 million. So, when we are able reroute or to arbitrage between the different markets, of course, it’s a very efficient way to maximize the value coming from that business,” Sbaire added. “Cash flow generation of this order of magnitude marks the start of a new era for the company.”
Spain’s Naturgy — which has some 5 million tons of U.S. LNG a year from Cheniere under contract — has also earned nearly five times more trading gas so far this year compared with 2021 thanks to “the increased spread between [Henry Hub] and TTF,” it wrote in its half-year report.
Long-term contracts with the U.S. weren’t always so profitable. In fact, from 2016 to at least 2018, buyers were mostly losing money on the fixed deals, leading some to sell them off. In 2019 Spain’s Iberdrola, for example, pawned off its 20-year Cheniere contract to Asian trader Pavilion Energy, which is now benefiting from selling into a high-priced global market.
E evident ca au fost profitori de pe urma razboiului din Ucraina, firmele care au livrat gaze naturale se numara printre castigatori.
Un exemplu de castigator de pe urma razboiului din Ucraina este Norvegia, Forbes se intreba ce fac norvegienii cu atata banet suplimentar , sa tot ai probleme de astea !
Rather, it should be the fact that—during 2022 and 2023, thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—Norway is earning more than $170 billion from oil and gas revenues above pre-war estimates from the Ministry of Finance. If oil and gas prices stay high due to sanctions on Russia and other reasons, Norway might continue to earn $50-100 billion extra per year for years to come. I have no inside connections in the Norwegian government, but I hope they are having discussions to figure out what to do with all this money. There are certainly pressures on them to be doing so. A September 8. 2022 The Economist article stated that, “Norway is profiting embarrassingly from war in Europe” and suggested “It should think of ways to help the EU through the crisis.”
“Norway is profiting embarrassingly from war in Europe”
Cand ai noroc,ai noroc, nu e vina norvegienilor ca au crescut preturile la gaze si petrol!
La norocosi putem mentiona si firmele de armament,
“Vânzările de echipamente militare americane către guverne străine în 2024 au crescut cu 29%, ajungând la un nivel record de 318,7 miliarde de dolari, a declarat vineri Departamentul de Stat, pe măsură ce țările au încercat să refacă stocurile trimise în Ucraina și să se pregătească pentru conflicte majore, scrie Reuters. “
“Direct military sales by U.S. companies rose to $200.8 billion in fiscal 2024 from $157.5 billion in fiscal 2023, while sales arranged through the U.S. government rose to $117.9 billion in 2024 from $80.9 billion the prior year.”
desi se mai spune ca “norocul ti-l mai faci si cu mana ta” .
La perdanti avem cam toata Europa, mentionez doar cazul Germaniei , 15.01.2025 :
Europe’s biggest economy shrank for a second year in a row in 2024, according to data released on Wednesday by the Federal Statistics Office.
Germany’s economy contracted by 0.2% last year after shrinking by 0.3% in 2023, latest data showed.
“According to first calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the price adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.2% lower in 2024 than in the previous year. The decline in economic performance in Germany also amounted to 0.2% after adjustment for calendar effects,” a Destatis press release said.
“Cyclical and structural pressures stood in the way of better economic development in 2024,” Ruth Brand added at a press conference held in Berlin on Germany’s 2024 gross domestic product.
“These include increasing competition for the German export industry on key sales markets, high energy costs, an interest rate level that remains high, and an uncertain economic outlook. Against this backdrop, the German economy contracted once again in 2024,” Brand continued.
Referitor la “high energy costs” avem o declaratie a cancelarului Scholz , 29.09.2002:
Germany is paying a high price for its dependence on Russian gas, which accounted for 55% of its gas imports before the war in Ukraine.
Germany’s government says it will spend up to €200 billion to help consumers and businesses cope with rising energy prices.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on Thursday that the government is reactivating an economic stabilising fund and “will do everything it can” to bring prices down.
Prices for natural gas — used to heat homes, generate electricity, and power factories — have surged across Europe amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Acu’ si profitul ala “jenant” al norvegienilor trebuie platit de cineva!
Germania e insa un caz aparte, deoarece in plina criza energetica in Europa, cancelarul Scholz a hotarat ca in 2023 sa inchida ultimile 3 reactoare nucleare !
Scholz a fost sustinut de “verzi” in aceasta decizie , desi a avut si oponenti chiar si in interiorul coalitiei de guvernare :
“The nuclear exit “is a black day for climate protection in Germany,” Jens Spahn, deputy parliamentary leader of the Christian Democrat (CDU) opposition, said this week.
The issue also splits the governing coalition in Berlin, with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) calling for the nuclear plants to be kept on standby at the very least.
“Shutting down the world’s most modern and safest nuclear power plants in Germany is a dramatic mistake that will have painful economic and ecological consequences,” said FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki.”
Iar actualul lider CDU, cu mari sanse de a deveni cancelar, a fost mai transant in opinii 13.11.2024 :
Friedrich Merz, liderul CDU şi totodată candidatul la rolul de viitor cancelar german din partea CDU şi CSU, cotat cu cele mai mari şanse de a obţine acest post în 2025, şi-a expus de curând poziţia sa faţă de viitorul sistemul energetic al Germaniei, în cadrul unei emisiuni de la postul de televiziune ZDF. Acesta a calificat turbinele eoliene actuale drept un decor urât în peisajele ţării, spunând că energia eoliană ar trebui să aibă maxim un rol de tranziţie, iar el şi-ar dori ca ulterior aceste turbine să fie demontate, făcând lor unor tehnologii avansate din domeniul energiei nucleare, după cum informează publicaţia germană Handelsblatt.
„Cred că dacă facem totul corect, într-o zi vom putea să demontăm aceste turbine eoliene, pentru că sunt urâte şi pentru că nu se încadrează nicidecum în peisaj”, a mai spus acesta în cadrul aceleiaşi emisiuni.
S-a vorbit in Germania si despre reactivarea centralelor nucleare inchise , dar se pare ca nu e posibil asa ceva 17.01.2025 :
Chancellor hopeful Friedrich Merz has concluded a nuclear energy revival in Germany is unrealistic, despite his party’s long-standing criticism of the timing of the country’s nuclear phase-out.
The front-runner to become Germany’s next leader after the February 23 elections, Merz has pulled back from a previous goal of restoring Germany’s nuclear reactors.
“They are being dismantled, they are being decontaminated. There is no way to fix this, most likely”, the centre-right CDU leader said this week at a meeting with a conservative workers’ union.
Chances of reactivation were “lower by the week”, Merz added.
Germany decommissioned its last three operating nuclear power plants in April 2023, following a 2011 decision by then-chancellor and fellow CDU member Angela Merkel.
Despite accepting that the country’s nuclear phaseout is now a done deal, Merz this week called the original decision to exit the technology a “grave strategic mistake”.
Germania a inlocuit centralele nucleare inchise prin importuri din Franta, care e plina de centrale nucleare si prin importuri din tarile nordice, intr-un alt articol voi detalia ce probleme au aparut in tarile nordice din cauza acestor importuri germane.
Interesant e ca germanii planuiesc inlocuirea acestor centrale nucleare cu centrale pe gaz 05.02.2024:
Berlin has agreed to spend €16 billion to build four major natural gas plants to meet electricity demand in a major overhaul of the country’s energy grid.
The government has described the fossil gas power plants as “modern, highly flexible and climate-friendly” because they will be capable of conversion to use clean-burning hydrogen gas produced from renewable sources. The plants are projected to produce up to 10 gigawatts of electricity. Tenders for the projects will begin soon
Environmental groups remain skeptical, however, with Greenpeace denouncing the strategy as a “perfect example of how the hype around hydrogen is just a smokescreen for more fossil gas.”
In September, Scholz dismissed calls from his own coalition to restart the reactors in light of the energy crisis, declaring: “Nuclear energy is over.”
Germanii au o preferinta pentru centralele pe gaz , Merz vorbeste de 50 de centrale noi pe gaz 19.01.2025 :
BERLIN, Jan 19 (Reuters) – Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who is tipped to be Germany’s next chancellor, has vowed to build 50 gas-fired power plants if his conservatives win the Feb. 23 snap election, the t-online news outlet reported on Sunday.
“We need to build 50 gas-fired power plants in Germany as quickly as possible, which will be connected to the grid immediately,” Merz, who heads the CDU/CSU conservative bloc, told t-online in an interview.
Acu’ chiar daca teoretic aceste centrale pe gaz vor putea fi convertite la consumul de hidrogen, procesul nu e pus la punct , deci vor consuma gaz initial , poate chiar mai mult timp decat spera Scholz, ca Merz nu pomeneste nimic de conversia pe hidrogen.
Este bizara aceasta determinare a germanilor pentru constructia de centrale pe gaz , in conditiile in care gazul in Europa e foarte scump. Nu imi dau seama de unde spera germanii sa cumpere gaze , recent s-a semnat un contract pentru importurile de gaz romanesc din Marea Neagra, nu stiu care sunt conditiile comerciale ale contractului:
Exportul, după 2027, a unei cantități de gaze naturale din perimetrul Neptun Deep, de către OMV Petrom către o companie din Germania, reprezintă „un pas firesc în cadrul unui proiect de importanță strategică pentru țara noastră și pentru Europa”, arată Ministerul Energiei.
„Pentru o clarificare completă și pentru a liniști orice temeri, dorim să subliniem că volumul exportat către Germania, conform datelor disponibile public, reprezintă sub 1% din producția totală estimată a zăcământului Neptun Deep. Aceasta este o proporție infimă, întrucât Neptun Deep are rezerve evaluate la peste 100 de miliarde de metri cubi de gaze naturale.”
Nu toata lumea e de acord cu ministrul Burduja, de exemplu Sorin Paslaru :
Cine spune că gazul din Marea Neagră este suficient şi poate fi exportat nu ia în calcul două lucruri: consumul de gaze trebuie să se dubleze dacă vrem un PIB dublu în 2025, iar pentru siguranţa energetică a generaţiilor viitoare trebuie redus consumul din exploatările terestre pe măsură ce apare gazul din Neptun Deep, iar acestea, lăsate ca rezervă pentru viitor.
Cei care au aruncat cu apă rece peste flamă au venit şi au spus: România consumă doar 10 miliarde de metri cubi pe an, 90% din producţie locală, va fi suficient gaz pentru România şi va mai rămâne şi pentru export.
Dar cine susţine acest punct de vedere nu ia în calcul două lucruri.
Întâi – că România are o reţea subdezvoltată de gaze şi deci un consum mult sub potenţialul său economic, la jumătate faţă de Ungaria şi la 10% faţă de Germania. Ungaria, la o populaţie şi suprafaţă la jumătate faţă de România, are 100.000 de kilometri de conducte de gaz (de transport şi de distribuţie), pe când România este doar la 50.000 de kilometri, iar Germania la 500.000 de kilometri. Relaţia între consumul de energie, inclusiv de gaz, şi PIB/capita nu trebuie să o mai demonstreze nimeni. Şi nici relaţia între consumul de gaze şi confortul din locuinţe. Ungaria are 98% din locuinţe conectate la gaz deşi nu are zăcămintele României de gaz, iar o altă ţară din regiune care a dat de gaz mult în Marea Neagră, Turcia, şi-a propus ca în cinci ani toate locuinţele să fie dotate cu gaz metan. În România, 3 milioane de locuinţe din mediul rural încă se încălzesc cu lemne şi ar fi culmea ca gazul din Marea Neagră să fie exportat prin conducta Tuzla-Podişor-Nădlac pe sub casele oamenilor care nu au acces la reţeaua de gaze.
Deci consumul de gaze al populaţiei se va dubla sau chiar tripla în următorii zece ani având în vedere dezvoltarea reţelei de transport pe care o are în derulare Transgaz, precum şi a reţelelor de distribuţie. Mai mult, va fi nevoie de gaz suplimentar pentru producţia de energie electrică în centrala de la Iernut a Romgaz, în alte centrale electrice pe bază de gaz, precum şi în industria mare sau în industria agro-alimentară. Gazul e materia principală pentru producţia de îngrăşăminte, unde România are un deficit anual de 3 miliarde de euro, iar pentru industria alimentară este esenţial – nu poţi faci o brutărie fără gaz. Deci dacă România vrea să-şi dubleze PIB-ul în următorii zece ani, va consuma cel puţin dublu gaz, adică 20 de miliarde de metri cubi pe an.
Dar probabil interese superioare de partid si de stat vor face posibil exportul de gaz romanesc in Germania ! Alta varianta pentru germani ar fi gazul rusesc, dar aici apar niste probleme, Nord Stream a suferit niste avarii cauzate de niste cetateni ucrainieni , unul dintre ei e dat in urmarire de justitia germana
Alta problema e ca din 2025 Ucraina a intrerupt tranzitul de gaz rusesc catre Europa, ocazie cu care BBC a titrat
Pierderile rezultate din stoparea tranzitului de gaz rusesc prin Ucraina ar fi conform CNN :
Ukraine now faces the loss of some $800 million a year in transit fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales, according to the news agency. Several European countries still purchasing Russian gas had previously arranged alternative supply routes, it reported.
Dar interesant ca tranzitul rusesc de petrol prin Ucraina continua:
The Druzhba crude oil pipeline is seen near Stryi, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, on Dec. 5, 2009
Ex-President Petro Poroshenko and members of his European Solidarity opposition party submitted a bill on Jan. 7 banning the transit of Russian oil and gas through Ukraine’s territory during martial law.
The move came after Ukraine decided not to prolong a deal on the transit of Russian gas to the EU through Ukrainian pipelines past Dec. 31, 2024. Ukraine continues to facilitate the transit of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, fulfilling a contract valid until the end of 2029.
“Every day, the Druzhba oil pipeline transports 300,000 barrels of Russian oil… Every day when the halt to Russian oil transit is delayed, tens of millions of dollars flow to Russia,” Poroshenko said at a press briefing. “In 2025 in total, Russia plans to receive $7.5 billion only from the sale of oil through Ukrainian transit.”
Adica Rusia a pierdut 5 miliarde USD prin oprirea tranzitului de gaz dar a ramas cu 7,5 miliarde USD din tranzitul de petrol prin Ucraina. Ucraina a pierdut si ea 800 milioane USD.
Politica germana in privinta energiei e dificil de inteles. Germania a fost crunt lovita de acest razboi din Ucraina, economia germana s-a contractat odata cu disparitia gazului ieftin rusesc. Profesorul Valentin Stan, in perioada cand venea la emisiunile lui Marius Tuca ( observ ca a disparut din emisiunile lui Tuca de ceva timp) tot repeta ca scopul razboiului din Ucraina a fost decuplarea Europei de gazul ieftin rusesc.
De aceea nu inteleg acest apetit al germanilor pentru construirea de centrale pe gaze, ar trebui sa ia de undeva gaz ieftin, poate ca germanii stiu ceva ce nu stim noi, respectiv ca razboiul din Ucraina se va incheia in viitorul mai mult sau mai putin apropiat si odata cu asta ei vor avea din nou acces la gazul ieftin rusesc.
Sunt si opinii mai radicale in Germania , precum a liderului AfD
AfD este cotat cu 22% din voturi, în urma conservatorilor, dar înaintea social-democraților lui Olaf Scholz.
Alice Weidel, președintele AfD: Închideți complet granițele și întoarceți de la graniță pe oricine intră în țară ilegal, fără acte. Este un mesaj foarte clar pentru întreaga lume: granițele germane sunt închise. Dacă trebuie să se numească remigrație, foarte bine, să se numească remigrație! Vom pune capăt tranziției energetice și vom abandona politica climatică a UE. Vom conecta centralele operaționale nucleare la rețea, cerem timpi mai lungi de funcționare pentru centralele pe cărbune, pentru că Germania are cele mai sigure, mai curate și mai moderne centrale electrice pe cărbune din lume. Și vom redeschide Nord Stream. Dacă vom fi la conducere, vom dărâma toate turbinele eoliene. Jos cu aceste mori de vânt ale rușinii!
Declaratiile d-nei Alice Weidel sunt mai dure, dar situatia din Germania e dificila, alegerile din 23.02.2025 sunt anticipate si sunt cauzate de lipsa banilor si de neintelegerile privind Ucraina :
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired former Finance Minister Christian Lindner after he proposed sending Ukraine Taurus missiles instead of financial aid, Lindner said on Nov. 7, according to the German media outlet Berliner Zeitung.
Scholz’s dismissal of Lindner on Nov. 6 triggered the collapse of Germany’s three-party governing coalition. Economic disagreements led to Lindner’s firing, Scholz said.
Lindner, who leads Germany’s Free Democratic Party (FDP), said his dispute with Scholz centered on Ukraine policy, Berliner Zeitung reported. According to Lindner, Scholz instructed him to transfer 3 billion euros (about $3.2 billion) to Ukraine, but Lindner disagreed due to the country’s financial difficulties.
Instead, Lindner proposed aiding Ukraine by sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles.
Kyiv has appealed to Berlin repeatedly for the German-made weapons, which have a range of up to 500 kilometers — significantly outstripping other Western long-range missiles. Scholz has persistently denied Ukraine’s requests.
“Three billion euros would not make the difference given the volume of funds available,” Lindner said.
“I said on behalf of the Free Democrats in the coalition committee: if we want different, stronger support for Ukraine … then Germany should make the decision to equip Ukraine with the weapons systems that the Ukrainians need to defend their freedom, in particular the Taurus weapons system.”
According to Lindner, Scholz was not willing to entertain the suggestion, and he was fired shortly after.
Scholz’s decision to fire Lindner will likely propel the country into a snap election in the near term.
Se observa ca sprijinul german pentru Ucraina s-a diminuat, o cauza e situatia economica a Germaniei, pretul mare la gaz a contribuit mult la aceasta deteriorare a economiei germane. Nu cred ca AfD va forma noul guvern , dar nici nu poate fi ignorata.
Din pacate la acest sprijin din ce in ce mai redus al votantilor germani pentru Ucraina au contribuit si refugiatii ucrainieni din Germania, Merz a avut o expresie neprietenoasa catre ei 27.09.2022 :
Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, has apologized on Tuesday for accusing Ukrainian refugees in Germany of “welfare tourism.”
In an interview with Bild TV on Monday night, Merz said Germany is “now experiencing welfare tourism among these refugees” and accused many of them of “taking advantage of the system” by going back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
In a tweet the day after, Merz apologized for his choice of words.
Trebuie mentionat ca nici Zelensky nu e multumit de comportamentul ucrainienilor din Germania 31.10.2024 :
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that at least 300,000 Ukrainians are not working in Germany and are not trying to find a job. In his opinion, when Germany’s social support is terminated, they will be forced to return.
“Not all Ukrainians are very happy to see abroad. This is not part of the plan to return Ukrainians, but there are facts. The respective countries and their leaders want those Ukrainians who work there to stay. At the same time, they are looking for ways to force those Ukrainians who do not work to return to Ukraine. This is also a fact. For example, there are more than 1.1 million Ukrainians in Germany today, and at least 300,000 of them are not working anywhere, not even trying to find a job. There are many such people throughout Europe,” Zelensky said.
He noted that a significant part of these people will return because the social benefits and support available abroad will disappear.
“They will disappear not because of us. Countries will simply stop helping them. As soon as their societies [of these countries] support the decision not to pay Ukrainians, at that moment the countries will do everything to stop payments completely,” the President said.
Referitor la incheierea conflictului din Ucraina, odata cu instalarea lui Trump ca presedinte USA, sunt ceva sperante. Trump i-a dat un ultimatum lui Putin, amenintandu-l cu sanctiuni :
Donald Trump has threatened Russia with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon, as the new US president tries to increase pressure on Moscow to start negotiations with Kyiv.
Writing in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said Russia’s economy was failing and urged Vladimir Putin to “settle now and stop this ridiculous war”.
Without a deal, Trump said, “I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”
The statement marks Trump’s most detailed efforts yet to end the war in Ukraine. During the election campaign, he said he would end the war “in 24 hours” if elected.
“Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way – and the easy way is always better,” he said.
Trump pledged during his presidential campaign to end the war before he even took office. Asked on Monday how long it would take to do so, he said: “I have to speak to President Putin. We’re going to have to find out.”
US media reported this week that Trump had instructed his special envoy, Keith Kellogg, to end the war in 100 days.
De asemenea , Trump a facut o declaratie interesanta la Davos :
In his wide-ranging speech, Trump made a link between the war in Ukraine and oil prices.
Trump said he would ask Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to bring down crude prices.
“If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately,” he said.
One day after he spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Donald Trump pushed the kingdom Thursday to increase its U.S. investment, saying he would ask the Saudis to “round out” their promised $600 billion “to around $1 trillion.”
“I think they’ll do that because we’ve been very good to them,” Trump said in virtual remarks to business and foreign leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. During Wednesday’s call, Trump’s first with a foreign leader since his inauguration Monday, the crown prince, the kingdom’s de facto head, told Trump he would invest at least $600 billion in the United States over the next four years, according to a readout provided by the Saudi government.
Trump, addressing the crowd at Davos on Thursday, also said he would push Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the price of oil.
“You got to bring it down, which, frankly, I’m surprised they didn’t do before the election,” he said. “That didn’t show a lot of love by them not doing it. I was a little surprised by that.”
Crude oil prices fell after Trump’s remarks, while U.S. stocks jumped.
Trump se bazeaza pe niste antecedente, in 1985 sauditii si-au marit productia de petrol si au coborat pretul , aceasta scadere a pretului petrolului ducand in opinia unor analisti la colapsul URSS
On his account of the collapse of the Soviet Union Cowen (2007: 13) succinctly states that the time-line of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13,1985. On this day, according to him, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the Minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market. During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms.
The consequence of this was that the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive.
A mai fost o scadere brusca a pretului petrolului mai recent, in 2014 :
Starting in mid-June 2014, petroleum prices began to fall worldwide, and that drop continued at a significantly accelerated rate through the end of January 2015. After peaking at $107.95 a barrel on June 20, 2014, petroleum prices plunged to $44.08 a barrel by January 28, 2015, a drop of 59.2 percent in a little over 7 months.Not surprisingly, the sharp drop in petroleum prices also affected the price of petroleum imports into the United States.
Acu’ nu stiu care a fost cauza scaderii pretului petrolului in 2014, de remarcat coincidenta cu invazia rusa din Crimeea, februarie-martie 2014, ambele evenimente avand loc in acelasi an, dar poate ca e doar o intamplare.
Dupa presa americana, ultimatumul lui Trump se refera la o pace care trebuie sa se incheie in 100 de zile.
Din pacate atat rusii cat si ucrainienii sunt foarte incapatanati, s-ar putea sa se omoare la greu in aceste 100 de zile fara sa se ajunga la pace.
Ucrainienii, chiar daca au pierderi de oameni si teritorii, se lupta uneori cu succes, chiar reusesc sa recucereasca din teritoriile capturate de rusi, mai ales in Kursk Oblast.
Chiar daca pentru asta iau decizii demente, precum cea a lui Sirski, care a trimis personalul tehnic din aviatia ucrainiana sa lupte ca infanteristi.
Since 2024, combat brigades of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been replenished with soldiers transferred from Ukraine’s Air Force units. This has continued into 2025. The latest order from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on the transfer of personnel was received by the Air Force units on 11 January. A Ukrainska Pravda source noted that more than 5,000 soldiers were to be transferred to the Ground Forces.
Sources: Vitalii Horzhevskyi, an aircraft technician and staff sergeant of the 114th Tactical Aviation Brigade, in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda and on Facebook; an experienced senior officer of one of the Air Force units
Details: Horzheskyi is subject to transfer to the Ground Forces according to an order given on 11 January 2025.
Why this is important: Mass transfers can significantly reduce the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force. That is why the Air Force personnel are trying to draw attention to the situation.
Quote from Horzhevskyi: “I have served in the 114th Brigade since 2014, repairing military equipment and maintaining its combat capability, such as [Soviet-made] MiG-29 and MiG-29A aircraft provided by our partners, Slovakia and Poland. Since 2014, we were transferred to the Ground Forces voluntarily, and since 2022 – ‘voluntarily’ and en masse. The mass transfers started in 2024 and 2025. Last year, 250 people were taken from our unit. This year, we received an order for 200+ people.
I understand that we need to defend our country, but we also need aircraft. We can’t do anything without aircraft. It needs to be constantly maintained in combat readiness. Training an aviation specialist takes years of preparation and practice. And I was told that I had to go and storm some forest belts. You’re given an order, and you have to follow it.”
Dar conform generalului Cavoli, rusii nu au capacitatea de a rupe frontul :
Generalul Christopher Cavoli, comandantul suprem al forțelor armate aliate ale NATO din Europa, consideră că armata rusă nu are destule trupe pentru un progres major pe frontul din Ucraina, potrivit The Kyiv Independent.
„Nu sunt îngrijorat că Ucraina ar putea pierde brusc. Nu văd potențialul pentru un progres major (al Rusiei)”, a declarat Cavoli, în timpul unei discuții în marja Forumului Economic Mondial de la Davos.
„Și aceasta nu este o viziune politică, ci una militară. Are de-a face cu ambele părți, cu apărarea eficientă pe care ucrainenii au pus-o în aplicare, dar și cu dificultatea pe care partea rusă o are în a genera forțe ofensive semnificative pentru a putea exploata o potențială breșă”, a explicat generalul american.
Rusii in schimb, chiar daca nu reusesc sa faca progrese majore, mai au si alte obiective mai pragmatice, cum ar fi capturarea unor resurse ucrainiene .
Mentionez luptele pentru capturarea depozitiului de litiu de langa Pokrovsk. 04.01.2025
Russian military took control of the Shevchenkovskoye lithium deposit, which, according to experts, is the largest in Ukraine and one of the largest in Europe. Several Russian media outlets reported this the day before. However, the Russian Defense Ministry has not yet confirmed this information, and military experts emphasize that the Russian Armed Forces must travel about ten kilometers more before establishing control over the Shevchenkovskoye lithium deposit.
As military experts explain, most likely, Russian media hastened to pass off wishful thinking as reality. Publications about the liberation of the largest lithium deposit emphasize that it is located in the urban settlement of Shevchenko, which is located in the vicinity of Kurakhovo. However, in fact, it is located in the settlement of the same name, but in the Velikonovoselkovsky district of the DPRTo take control of this facility, Russian troops must first take Velikaya Novosyolka, which, although it is almost completely blockaded, is not yet physically controlled.
It is worth noting that the Shevchenkovskoye lithium deposit is indeed one of the largest in Europe. It was discovered in 1982. The area of the deposit is 0,8 square kilometers, the thickness of the overlying sedimentary rocks is 70-130 m, the reserves are calculated to a depth of 500 meters.
The Shevchenkovske lithium deposit reserves were supposed to be sufficient to meet all EU needs until 2050
– stated some time ago the leading specialist of the Commission on Economy and Industry of the European Union Arnold Reningard, demanding that it not be allowed to come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.
Let us recall that earlier in Ukraine they warned about a catastrophe that could befall the country’s steel industry if the Pokrovskoye mine administration comes under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.
Intre timp rusii au avansat in Velikaya Novosyolka, aproape au cucerit localitatea.
De asemenea , sunt si in apropierea minelor de carbine cocsificabil de langa Pokrovsk, daca reusesc cucerirea acestor mine pun pe butuci metalurgia ucrainiana 13.01.2025 Ucraina a oprit producţia la mina sa de cărbune cocsificabil din Pokrovsk, care alimentează industria siderurgică a ţării, din cauza apropierii forţelor ruse care avansează, au declarat luni două surse din industrie pentru Reuters. Această facilitate din oraşul Pokrovsk, în pericol de a fi ocupat de forţele ruse, este singura mină din Ucraina care produce cărbune cocsificabil necesar industriei siderurgice a ţării, cândva uriaşă, dar care a dispărut după invazia Rusiei în februarie 2022.
Parafrazandu-l pe Guderian , care spunea ca motorul tancului e o arma ca si tunul tancului, as putea spune ca si petrolul si gazul sunt arme in sine. Daca gazul s-a dovedit a fi o arma foarte eficienta a lui Putin , mai ales impotriva Europei, poate ca Trump se va folosi de petrol ca o arma impotriva lui Putin si impreuna cu amenintarile cu sanctiuni va reusi sa opreasca acest razboi distrugator din Ucraina !
Autor: Caudillo
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